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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

 

OCTOBER-DECEMBER, 2003


12/26-28
4-day 12/25-28 gross will be basis of accuracy for Cheaper, Peter, Cold and Paycheck.

1

The Return of the King

54.5
224.0 / 2

50.6
222.3 / 2

92.29%

2

Cheaper by the Dozen
(3,298 theaters)

20.6
26.4 / 1

27.6
35.4 / 1

74.58%

3

Cold Mountain
(2,163 theaters)

14.9
19.2 / 1

14.6
19.1 / 1

99.48%

4

Peter Pan
(2,813 theaters)

14.1
17.4 / 1

11.1
14.6 / 1

80.82%

5

Something's Gotta Give

12.3
54.2 / 3

13.8
55.9 / 3

89.13%

6

Mona Lisa Smile

12.0
31.7 / 2

11.4
31.2 / 2

94.74%

7

Paycheck
(2,762 theaters)

9.5
12.3 / 1

13.5
18.6 / 1

66.13%

8

The Last Samurai

8.5
73.7 / 4

8.3
74.3 / 4

97.59%

9

Stuck on You

4.8
26.3 / 3

3.6
24.4 / 3

66.67%

10

The Haunted Mansion

4.7
66.8 / 5

2.9
64.7 / 5

37.93%

11

Elf

3.7
163.9 / 8

3.9
164.6 / 8

94.87%

12

Bad Santa

3.3
48.9
/ 5

4.5
50.9
/ 5

73.33%


12/19-21
5-day gross will be basis of accuracy for Return of the King.

1

The Return of the King
(3,703 theaters)

75.2
123.8 / 1

72.6
124.1 / 1

99.76%

2

Mona Lisa Smile
(2,500+ theaters)

13.3
13.3 / 1

11.5
131.5 / 1

84.35%

3

Something's Gotta Give

10.5
32.4 / 2

11.4
33.4 / 2

92.11%

4

The Last Samurai

8.3
60.2 / 3

7.8
59.5 / 3

93.59%

5

Stuck on You

5.4
17.0 / 2

5.3
17.0 / 2

98.11%

6

Elf

4.8
154.1 / 7

5.5
154.8 / 7

87.27%

7

Bad Santa

4.7
42.6
/ 4

5.1
42.9
/ 4

92.16%

8

The Haunted Mansion

4.1
58.9 / 4

3.9
58.8 / 4

94.87%

9

Love Don't Cost a Thing

3.0
10.4 / 2

3.8
11.2 / 2

78.95%

10

Honey

2.9
23.8
/ 3

2.7
23.6
/ 3

92.59%


12/12-14

1

Something's Gotta Give
(2,677 theaters)

19.2
19.2 / 1

16.1
16.1 / 1

80.75%

2

The Last Samurai

16.9
49.8 / 2

14.1
46.9 / 2

80.14%

3

Stuck on You
(3,003 theaters)

14.1
14.1 / 1

9.4
9.4 / 1

50.00%

4

Love Don't Cost a Thing
(1,844 theaters)

9.2
9.2 / 1

6.3
6.3 / 1

53.97%

5

Honey

6.6
21.5 / 2

4.9
19.8 / 2

65.31%

6

Elf

6.2
147.7 / 6

6.0
147.5 / 6

96.67%

7

The Haunted Mansion

6.1
53.7 / 3

6.1
53.7 / 3

100.00%

8

Bad Santa

5.2
34.8
/ 3

6.0
35.7
/ 3

86.67%

9

The Cat in the Hat

4.2
90.8 / 4

4.2
90.7 / 4

100.00%

10

Gothika

3.2
54.4 / 4

2.7
53.9 / 4

81.48%


12/5-7

1

The Last Samurai
(2,908 theaters)

29.1
29.1 / 1

24.3
24.3 / 1

80.25%

2

Honey
(1,941 theaters)

12.4
12.4 / 1

12.9
12.9 / 1

96.12%

3

The Haunted Mansion

10.3
46.9 / 2

9.4
46.0 / 2

90.43%

4

Elf

9.8
141.3 / 5

8.0
139.5 / 5

77.50%

5

The Cat in the Hat

9.6
87.8 / 3

7.1
85.3 / 3

64.79%

6

Gothika

5.6
49.9 / 3

5.3
49.5 / 3

94.34%

7

Bad Santa

5.5
25.5 / 2

7.0
27.1 / 2

78.57%

8

Master and Commander

5.4
74.2 / 4

3.7
72.6 / 4

54.05%

9

The Missing

4.7
22.4 / 2

4.0
21.8 / 2

82.50%

10

Love Actually

4.4
49.6 / 5

3.6
48.7 / 5

77.78%

11

Timeline

3.4
17.4 / 2

2.7
16.8 / 2

74.07%


11/28-30
5-day gross is the basis of accuracy for 11/26 openers.

1

The Cat in the Hat

28.1
82.5 / 2

24.5
75.8 / 2

85.31%

2

The Haunted Mansion
(3,122 theaters)

26.6
36.9 / 1

34.0
34.0 / 1

91.47%

3

Elf

22.3
128.7 / 4

21.6
129.0 / 4

96.76%

4

The Missing
(2,756 theaters)

15.5
21.6 / 1

10.8
15.2 / 1

57.89%

5

Gothika

12.8
41.6 / 2

12.9
41.3 / 2

99.22%

6

Timeline
(2,787 theaters)

12.2
18.2 / 1

8.4
12.4 / 1

53.23%

7

Master and Commander

10.3
65.4 / 3

12.0
66.6 / 3

85.83%

8

Love Actually

7.9
43.1 / 4

8.2
43.4 / 4

96.34%

9

Bad Santa
(2,005 theaters)

6.3
9.4 / 1

12.3
16.8 / 1

55.95%

-

The Matrix Revolutions

4.1
132.8 / 4

4.8
133.3 / 4

85.42%


11/21-23

1

The Cat in the Hat
(3,464 theaters)

39.0
39.0 / 1

38.3
38.3 / 1

98.17%

2

Elf

19.5
95.6 / 3

18.7
94.7 / 3

95.72%

3

Gothika
(2,382 theaters)

16.4
16.4 / 1

19.3
19.3 / 1

84.97%

4

Master and Commander

15.9
48.3 / 2

15.2
47.3 / 2

95.39%

5

Brother Bear

7.8
72.7 / 5

5.3
70.3 / 5

52.83%

6

Love Actually
(1,687 theaters)

7.7
29.5 / 3

8.6
30.4 / 3

89.53%

7

The Matrix Revolutions

7.3
125.8 / 3

7.0
125.4 / 3

95.71%

8

Looney Tunes: Back in Action

6.2
16.9 / 2

4.2
14.9 / 2

52.38%

9

Scary Movie 3

3.0
106.4 / 5

3.1
106.5 / 5

96.77%

10

Radio

2.9
47.3 / 5

2.6
47.1 / 5

88.46%


11/14-16

1

Master and Commander
(3,100 theaters)

27.1
27.1 / 1

25.1
25.1 / 1

92.03%

2

Elf

23.1
70.1 / 2

26.3
70.4 / 2

87.83%

3

The Matrix Revolutions

20.7
121.1 / 2

16.4
114.3 / 2

73.78%

4

Looney Tunes: Back in Action
(2,903 theaters)

17.2
17.2 / 1

9.3
9.3 / 1

15.05%

5

Brother Bear

12.4
65.2 / 4

12.1
63.1 / 4

97.52%

6

Love Actually
(1,200 theaters)

9.3
19.8 / 2

8.7
18.9 / 2

93.10%

7

Scary Movie 3

5.6
103.3 / 4

6.1
102.3 / 4

91.80%

8

Radio

4.8
44.2 / 4

4.8
43.5 / 4

100.00%

9

Mystic River

3.2
45.9 / 6

3.2
45.6 / 6

  100.00%

10

Runaway Jury

3.0
45.0 / 5

2.8
44.5 / 5

 92.86%

-

Tupac: Resurrection
(800 theaters)

2.7
2.7 / 1

4.6
4.6 / 1

58.70%


11/7-9

1

The Matrix Revolutions
(3,502 theaters)

72.8
117.2 / 1

48.5
83.8 / 1

60.14%

2

Elf
(3,000+ theaters)

27.1
27.1 / 1

31.1
31.1 / 1

87.14%

3

Brother Bear

17.0
42.5 / 3

18.5
44.0 / 3

91.89%

4

Scary Movie 3

9.0
91.1 / 3

10.8
93.1 / 3

83.33%

5

Love Actually
(550+ theaters)

7.4
7.4 / 1

6.9
6.9 / 1

92.75%

6

Radio

6.3
35.2 / 3

7.2
36.1 / 3

87.50%

7

Texas Chainsaw Massacre

5.2
73.7 / 4

4.9
73.4 / 4

93.88%

8

Runaway Jury

4.2
39.5 / 4

4.7
40.0 / 4

  89.36%

9

Mystic River

4.1
39.6 / 5

4.8
40.4 / 5

  85.42%

10

School of Rock

2.9
73.4 / 6

3.0
73.5 / 6

 96.67%

11

Kill Bill Vol. 1

2.4
65.0 / 5

2.3
64.8 / 5

 95.65%


10/31-11/1

1

Scary Movie 3

25.1
81.5 / 2

20.0
77.5 / 2

74.50%

2

Brother Bear
(3,030 theaters)

17.0
17.4 / 2

19.4
19.8 / 2

87.63%

3

Radio

9.0
25.6 / 2

9.6
26.2 / 2

93.75%

4

Texas Chainsaw Massacre

8.7
63.8 / 3

10.8
66.0 / 3

80.56%

5

Runaway Jury

5.7
32.5 / 3

6.5
33.3 / 3

  87.69%

6

Mystic River

5.6
33.0 / 4

6.2
33.5 / 4

  90.32%

7

School of Rock

4.6
69.3 / 5

4.5
69.2 / 5

  97.78%

8

Kill Bill Vol. 1

3.7
60.1 / 4

4.5
60.8 / 4

  82.22%

-

In the Cut
(825 theaters)

2.5
2.7 / 2

2.1
2.2 / 2

80.95%

-

Alien: The Director's Cut
(347 theaters)

1.5
1.8 / 1

1.0
1.3 / 1

50.00%


10/24-26

1

Scary Movie 3
(3,503 theaters)

39.4
39.4 / 1

48.1
48.1 / 1

81.91%

2

Texas Chainsaw Massacre

12.6
48.9 / 2

14.5
50.9 / 2

86.90%

3

Radio
(3,074 theaters)

11.0
11.0 / 1

13.3
13.3 / 1

82.71%

4

School of Rock

7.7
64.5 / 4

6.5
63.4 / 4

  81.54%

5

Runaway Jury

7.3
22.9 / 2

8.4
24.1 / 2

  86.90%

6

Mystic River

6.9
23.9 / 3

7.8
24.7 / 3

  88.46%

7

Kill Bill Vol. 1

6.8
54.0 / 3

6.4
54.0 / 3

  93.75%

8

Good Boy!

5.7
32.7 / 3

5.1
32.1 / 3

  88.24%

9

Intolerable Cruelty

3.7
28.3 / 3

3.6
28.3 / 3

  97.22%

10

Beyond Borders
(1,798 theaters)

2.8
2.8 / 1

2.1
2.1 / 1

66.67%


10/17-19

1

Texas Chainsaw Massacre
(3,016 theaters)

19.4
19.4 / 1

28.1
28.1 / 1

 69.04%

2

Runaway Jury (2,815 theaters)

15.8
15.8 / 1

11.8
11.8 / 1

  66.10%

3

Kill Bill Vol. 1

10.8
41.6 / 2

12.4
41.6 / 2

  87.10%

4

School of Rock

10.6
54.3 / 3

11.0
54.9 / 3

  96.36%

5

Mystic River (1,467 theaters)

9.0
12.2 / 2

10.4
13.5 / 2

 86.54%

6

Good Boy!

8.8
25.5 / 2

8.9
25.7 / 2

  98.88%

7

Intolerable Cruelty

7.4
23.6 / 2

6.5
22.7 / 2

 86.15%

8

Out of Time

4.8
36.0 / 3

4.0
35.2 / 3

 80.00%

9

Veronica Guerin (472 theaters)

2.7
2.7 / 1

0.6
0.6 / 1

 0%

10

House of the Dead

2.5
9.6 / 2

1.8
8.8 / 2

61.11% 


10/10-12

1

Kill Bill Vol. 1 (3,102 theaters)

25.2
25.2 / 1

22.1
22.1 / 1

  85.97%

2

Intolerable Cruelty (2,562 theaters)

15.6
15.6 / 1

  15.5
15.5 / 1

75.20% 

3

School of Rock (2,929 theaters)

13.2
37.2 / 2

  13.1
39.7 / 2

  85.16%

4

Good Boy! (3,225 theaters)

10.1
10.1 / 1

  12.5
10.1 / 1

  77.10%

5

Out of Time

8.5
28.6 / 2

  8.6
28.7 / 2

  98.84%

6

Under the Tuscan Sun

5.7
29.1 / 3

  4.9
28.3 / 3

  83.67%

7

The Rundown

5.3
40.3 / 3

  5.7
40.3 / 3

  98.08%

8

House of the Dead (1,520 theaters)

4.8
4.8 / 1

  5.2
5.2 / 1

  84.21%

9

Secondhand Lions

3.4
35.4 / 4

  3.3
34.4 / 4

  96.97%

10

Lost in Translation

2.8
18.0 / 5

  2.8
18.1 / 5

  100.00%


10/3-5

1

School of Rock (2,614 theaters)

22.1
22.1 / 1

  19.6
19.6 / 1

  87.24%

2

Out of Time (3,076 theaters)

12.5
12.5 / 1

  16.2
16.2 / 1

  77.16%

3

The Rundown

11.3
34.2 / 2

  9.7
32.7 / 2

  83.51%

4

Under the Tuscan Sun (1,697 theaters)

9.2
22.3 / 2

  7.7
20.7 / 2

  80.52%

5

Secondhand Lions

5.6
30.9 / 3

  5.2
30.6 / 3

  92.31%

6

Underworld

4.9
44.6 / 3

  5.1
44.8 / 3

  96.08%

7

The Fighting Temptations

3.7
24.8 / 3

  3.4
24.6 / 3

  91.18%

8

Lost in Translation (864 theaters)

3.5
13.3 / 4

  4.2
14.0 / 4

  83.33%

9

Once Upon a Time in Mexico

2.5
52.9 / 4

  2.6
53.1 / 4

  96.15%

10

Duplex

2.1
7.7 / 2

  2.2
7.9 / 2

  95.45%

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Forecast Archive

2003

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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