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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

 

JANUARY-MARCH, 2004

3/26-28

1

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
(3,312 theaters)

21.7
21.7 / 1

29.4
29.4 / 1

 73.81%

2

The Ladykillers
(1,583 theaters)

14.8
14.8 / 1

12.6
12.6 / 1

 82.54%

3

The Passion of the Christ

12.2
314.8 / 5

12.6
315.2 / 5

 96.83%

4

Dawn of the Dead

11.4
44.9 / 2

10.7
44.2 / 2

 93.46%

5

Jersey Girl
(1,520 theaters)

8.5
8.5 / 1

8.3
8.3 / 1

 97.59%

6

Taking Lives

7.1
22.3 / 2

6.6
21.7 / 2

 92.42%

7

Starsky and Hutch

6.9
77.5 / 4

6.2
76.8 / 4

 88.71%

8

Hidalgo

5.7
56.8 / 4

5.3
56.4 / 4

 92.45%

9

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

5.4
16.7 / 2

5.3
16.6 / 2

 98.11%

10

Never Die Alone
(1,161 theaters)

5.1
5.1 / 1

3.1
3.1 / 1

 35.48%

11

Secret Window

5.1
40.3 / 3

5.3
40.6 / 3

 96.23%

12

Agent Cody Banks 2

3.9
22.6 / 3

2.8
21.4 / 3

 60.71%


3/19-21

1

Dawn of the Dead
(2,744 theaters)

27.5
27.5 / 1

26.7
26.7 / 1

 97.00%

2

The Passion of the Christ

20.8
296.9 / 4

19.4
295.5 / 4

 92.78%

3

Taking Lives
(2,705 theaters)

14.4
14.4 / 1

11.5
11.5 / 1

 74.78%

4

Starsky and Hutch

10.0
67.1 / 3

10.4
67.5 / 3

 96.15%

5

Secret Window

9.5
33.0 / 2

9.3
32.8 / 2

 97.85%

6

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
(1,353 theaters)

8.5
8.5 / 1

8.2
8.2 / 1

 96.34%

7

Hidalgo

7.7
47.7 / 3

8.4
48.4 / 3

 91.67%

8

Agent Cody Banks 2

4.8
16.1 / 2

6.0
17.3 / 2

 80.00%

9

50 First Dates

3.6
112.5 / 6

4.2
113.1 / 6

 85.71%

-

The Return of the King

1.3
373.3 / 14

1.4
373.4 / 14

 92.86%


3/12-14

1

The Passion of the Christ

34.5
266.7 / 3

32.1
264.5 / 3

 92.52%

2

Secret Window
(3,018 theaters)

18.4
18.4 / 1

18.2
18.2 / 1

 98.90%

3

Starsky and Hutch

17.1
52.6 / 2

16.0
51.5 / 2

 93.12%

4

Agent Cody Banks 2
(2,973 theaters)

11.1
11.1 / 1

8.0
8.0 / 1

 61.25%

5

Hidalgo

10.6
34.3 / 2

11.9
35.6 / 2

 89.08%

6

50 First Dates

4.9
106.1 / 5

5.4
106.7 / 5

 90.74%

7

Twisted

2.9
21.0 / 3

3.1
21.1 / 3

 93.55%

8

Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen

2.8
25.2 / 4

2.5
24.9 / 4

 88.00%

9

Spartan
(832 theaters)

2.1
2.1 / 1

2.0
2.0 / 1

 95.00%

10

The Return of the King

1.9
371.0 / 13

2.0
371.1 / 13

 95.00%


3/5-7

1

The Passion of the Christ
(3,170 theaters)

59.4
220.2 / 2

53.2
213.9 / 2

88.35%

2

Starsky and Hutch
(3,185 theaters)

20.9
20.9 / 1

28.1
28.1 / 1

74.38%

3

Hidalgo
(3,063 theaters)

13.4
13.4 / 1

18.8
18.8 / 1

71.28%

4

50 First Dates

7.7
99.4 / 4

7.6
99.3 / 4

98.68%

5

Twisted

4.4
15.7 / 2

5.1
16.5 / 2

86.27%

6

Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen

3.8
21.5 / 3

4.0
21.8 / 3

95.00%

7

The Return of the King
(1,903 theaters)

3.6
368.7 / 12

3.0
368.2 / 12

80.00%

8

Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights

3.2
10.3 / 2

3.0
10.1 / 2

93.33%

-

Monster

2.6
30.4 / 11

2.1
30.0 / 11

76.19%

-

Mystic River

2.5
85.7 / 22

2.0
85.2 / 22

75.00%


2/27-29
(5-day gross being counted for 'Passion')

1

The Passion of the Christ
(3,006 theaters)

45.0
78.0 / 1

83.8
125.2 / 1

62.30%

2

50 First Dates

11.2
86.4 / 3

12.6
88.7 / 3

88.89%

3

Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights
(2,000+ theaters)

7.1
7.1 / 1

5.8
5.8 / 1

77.59%

4

Twisted
(2,703 theaters)

6.7
6.7 / 1

8.9
8.9 / 1

75.28%

5

Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen

5.5
15.9 / 2

6.3
16.9 / 2

87.30%

6

Miracle

5.4
57.2 / 4

4.5
56.3 / 4

80.00%

7

Club Dread
(1,807 theaters)

4.5
4.5 / 1

3.0
3.0 / 1

50.00%

8

Eurotrip

4.1
12.8 / 2

4.1
12.8 / 2

100.00%

9

Barbershop 2

3.9
58.3 / 4

3.1
57.6 / 4

74.19%

10

Welcome to Mooseport

3.8
12.0 / 2

3.3
11.5 / 2

84.85%


2/20-22

1

50 First Dates

19.5
70.8 / 2

20.4
71.7 / 2

 95.59%

2

Eurotrip
(2,512 theaters)

12.6
12.6 / 1

6.7
6.7 / 1

 11.94%

3

Welcome to Mooseport
(2,867 theaters)

11.6
11.6 / 1

6.8
6.8 / 1

29.41% 

4

Miracle

9.3
51.8 / 3

7.8
50.4 / 3

80.77% 

5

Barbershop 2

8.0
54.9 / 3

6.3
53.2 / 3

73.02% 

6

Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen
(2,503 theaters)

5.8
5.8 / 1

9.4
9.4 / 1

61.70% 

7

Against the Ropes
(1,601 theaters)

3.2
3.2 / 1

3.0
3.0 / 1

93.33% 

8

The Return of the King

3.1
361.4 / 9

2.9
361.1 / 9

93.10% 

9

The Butterfly Effect

3.0
53.2 / 5

3.0
53.2 / 5

100.00% 

10

You Got Served

2.7
36.5 / 4

2.7
36.5 / 4

100.00% 


2/13-16
4-day President's Day weekend

1

50 First Dates
(3,591 theaters)

35.9
35.9 / 1

45.1
45.1 / 1

79.60%

2

Miracle

15.8
38.8 / 2

17.0
40.1 / 2

92.94%

3

Barbershop 2

15.5
44.0 / 2

16.5
45.0 / 2

93.94%

4

Along Came Polly

5.6
82.2 / 5

5.5
82.0 / 5

98.18%

5

Catch That Kid

5.1
11.6 / 2

5.9
12.4 / 2

86.44%

6

The Butterfly Effect

4.7
47.9 / 4

6.0
49.2 / 4

78.33%

7

You Got Served

4.3
31.3 / 3

6.0
33.0 / 3

71.67%

8

The Return of the King

3.9
356.2 / 8

5.1
357.4 / 8

76.47%

9

Monster

3.7
20.2 / 8

3.8
20.3 / 8

97.37%

10

Mystic River

3.6
74.6 / 19

4.3
75.3 / 19

83.72%


2/6-8

1

Barbershop 2
(2,711 theaters)

30.5
30.5 / 1

24.2
24.2 / 1

 73.97%

2

Miracle
(2,605 theaters)

17.5
17.5 / 1

19.4
19.4 / 1

 90.21%

3

You Got Served

6.7
25.0 / 2

7.5
25.9 / 2

 89.33%

4

Along Came Polly

6.0
74.2 / 4

6.8
75.0 / 4

 88.24%

5

The Butterfly Effect

6.0
40.8 / 3

6.5
41.3 / 3

 92.31%

6

Catch That Kid
(2,844 theaters)

5.3
5.3 / 1

5.8
5.8 / 1

 91.38%

7

The Return of the King

3.9
350.7 / 8

4.3
351.1 / 8

 90.70%

8

Monster
(890 theaters)

3.9
15.7 / 7

3.5
15.3 / 7

 88.57%

9

Mystic River

3.3
69.5 / 18

3.6
69.9 / 18

 91.67%

-

The Perfect Score

2.2
7.8 / 2

2.9
8.4 / 2

 75.86%


1/30-2/1

1

Along Came Polly

10.1
66.8 / 3

9.3
66.0 / 3

 91.40%

2

The Butterfly Effect

9.7
31.8 / 2

9.6
31.7 / 2

 98.96%

3

The Perfect Score
(2,208 theaters)

7.6
7.6 / 1

4.9
4.9 / 1

 44.90%

4

The Return of the King

5.9
345.9 / 7

5.3
345.3 / 7

 88.68%

5

The Big Bounce
(2,304 theaters)

5.7
5.7 / 1

3.3
3.3 / 1

 27.27%

6

Big Fish

4.8
55.6 / 8

4.5
55.3 / 8

 93.33%

7

Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!

4.8
13.7 / 2

4.2
13.1 / 2

 85.71%

8

Cheaper by the Dozen

4.6
128.3 / 6

4.3
128.0 / 6

 93.02%

9

Mystic River

4.2
64.7 / 17

4.4
64.9 / 17

 95.45%

10

You Got Served
(1,933 theaters)

4.2
4.2 / 1

16.1
16.1 / 1

 26.09%

11

Monster
(662 theaters)

4.1
11.2 / 6

3.4
10.5 / 6

 79.41%

12

Cold Mountain

3.7
78.0 / 6

4.1
78.4 / 6

 90.24%


1/23-25

1

The Butterfly Effect
(2,605 theaters)

17.1
17.1 / 1

17.1
17.1 / 1

100.00%

2

Along Came Polly

15.2
52.1 / 2

16.4
53.3 / 2

92.68%

3

Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!
(2,711 theaters)

12.7
12.7 / 1

7.3
7.3 / 1

26.03%

4

The Return of the King

6.4
337.4 / 6

6.8
337.8 / 6

94.12%

5

Big Fish

6.2
48.0 / 7

7.1
48.9 / 7

87.32%

6

Cheaper by the Dozen

6.0
122.1 / 5

6.4
122.5 / 5

93.75%

7

Torque

4.3
17.1 / 2

4.5
17.3 / 2

95.56%

8

Cold Mountain

4.1
71.7 / 5

5.0
72.6 / 5

82.00%

9

Something's Gotta Give

3.6
106.6 / 7

4.0
107.1 / 7

90.00%

10

Mystic River
(1,327 theaters)

2.4
57.8 / 16

3.4
58.8 / 16

70.59%


1/16-19
4-day MLK Weekend

1

Along Came Polly
(2,984 theaters)

25.7
25.7 / 1

32.5
32.5 / 1

79.08%

2

Torque
(2,463 theaters)

12.7
12.7 / 1

11.4
11.4 / 1

88.60%

3

The Return of the King

12.3
328.9 / 5

12.4
328.9 / 5

99.19%

4

Big Fish

11.0
38.5 / 6

12.3
39.9 / 6

89.43%

5

Cheaper by the Dozen

10.9
114.0 / 4

11.9
115.1 / 4

91.60%

6

Cold Mountain

9.1
67.1 / 4

7.9
66.0 / 4

84.81%

7

Something's Gotta Give

8.3
103.2 / 6

6.7
101.7 / 6

76.12%

8

Teacher's Pet
(2,027 theaters)

7.6
7.6 / 1

3.6
3.6 / 1

0.00%

9

My Baby's Daddy

4.4
13.1 / 2

4.4
13.2 / 2

100.00%

10

Chasing Liberty

3.8
11.0 / 2

3.5
10.7 / 2

91.43%


1/9-11

1

The Return of the King

15.5
313.7 / 4

14.2
312.3 / 4

90.85%

2

Cheaper by the Dozen

12.5
102.0 / 3

11.8
101.1 / 3

94.07%

3

Big Fish
(2,406 theaters)

12.2
21.8 / 5

13.8
23.4 / 5

88.41%

4

Chasing Liberty
(2,400 theaters)

9.8
9.8 / 1

6.1
6.1 / 1

39.34%

5

Cold Mountain

7.8
55.4 / 3

7.9
55.3 / 3

98.73%

6

Something's Gotta Give

7.7
92.5 / 5

7.7
92.5 / 5

100.00%

7

My Baby's Daddy
(1,447 theaters)

5.4
5.4 / 1

7.5
7.5 / 1

72.00%

8

Peter Pan

5.2
41.0 / 3

4.2
40.0 / 3

76.19%

9

Mona Lisa Smile

5.1
57.6 / 4

4.4
56.9 / 4

84.09%

10

Paycheck

5.0
46.3 / 3

5.1
46.4 / 3

98.04%


1/2-4

1

The Return of the King

28.0
287.5 / 3

28.2
290.4 / 3

99.29%

2

Cheaper by the Dozen

21.3
84.1 / 2

21.6
85.6 / 2

98.61%

3

Something's Gotta Give

13.0
82.9 / 4

11.7
81.2 / 4

88.89%

4

Cold Mountain

11.9
45.1 / 2

11.6
43.7 / 2

97.41%

5

Peter Pan

9.5
34.2 / 2

8.8
34.2 / 2

92.05%

6

Mona Lisa Smile

9.0
50.2 / 3

8.3
50.0 / 3

91.57%

7

Paycheck

8.1
36.0 / 2

9.8
38.6 / 2

82.65%

8

The Last Samurai

6.6
88.1 / 5

7.4
90.0 / 5

89.19%

9

Bad Santa

2.9
57.0
/ 6

2.9
56.9
/ 6

100.00%

10

Elf

2.3
170.8 / 9

2.3
170.8 / 9

100.00%

 

CLICK HERE TO TEST YOUR PREDICTING PROWESS

Forecast Archive

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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