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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

APRIL-JUNE, 2004

6/25-27

1

Fahrenheit 9/11
(868 theaters)

20.8
20.8 / 1

23.9
23.9 / 1

 87.03%

2

White Chicks
(2,726 theaters)

18.7
29.0 / 1

19.7
27.2 / 1

 94.92%

3

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story

17.1
66.0 / 2

18.8
67.5 / 2

 90.96%

4

The Terminal

11.9
40.3 / 2

13.1
41.0 / 2

 90.84%

5

The Notebook
(2,300 theaters)

11.5
11.5 / 1

13.5
13.5 / 1

 85.19%

6

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

10.4
211.0 / 4

11.2
211.5 / 4

 92.86%

7

Shrek 2

9.1
395.9 / 6

10.2
396.8 / 6

 89.22%

8

Garfield

6.8
55.6 / 3

7.5
56.3 / 3

 90.67%

9

The Chronicles of Riddick

5.0
51.9 / 3

4.5
51.2 / 3

 88.89%

-

Two Brothers
(2,170 theaters)

4.7
4.7 / 1

6.1
6.1 / 1

 77.05%

-

The Stepford Wives

4.5
48.5 / 3

5.1
48.9 / 3

 88.24%

-

Around the World in 80 Days

4.1
18.3 / 2

4.3
18.3 / 2

 95.35%


6/18-20

1

The Terminal
(2,800 theaters)

31.6
31.6 / 1

19.1
19.1 / 1

34.55%

2

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
(2,694 theaters)

21.9
21.9 / 1

30.1
30.1 / 1

72.76%

3

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

18.1
191.1 / 3

18.0
190.9 / 3

99.44%

4

Shrek 2

14.6
379.3 / 5

13.9
378.6 / 5

94.96%

5

Around the World in 80 Days
(2,612 theaters)

13.3
18.3 / 1

7.6
10.4 / 1

25.00%

6

Garfield

11.8
42.9 / 2

11.3
42.4 / 2

95.58%

7

The Stepford Wives

10.3
40.5 / 2

8.8
39.0 / 2

82.95%

8

The Chronicles of Riddick

9.7
43.0 / 2

9.4
42.5 / 2

96.81%

9

The Day After Tomorrow

8.0
167.2 / 4

8.1
167.3 / 4

98.77%

10

Raising Helen

2.0
35.5 / 4

1.3
34.6 / 4

46.15%


6/11-13

1

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

40.6
163.7 / 2

34.9
158.0 / 2

 83.67%

2

The Chronicles of Riddick
(2,757 theaters)

31.0
31.0 / 1

24.3
24.3 / 1

 72.43%

3

Shrek 2

23.2
353.2 / 4

23.3
353.3 / 4

 99.57%

4

Garfield
(3,094 theaters)

22.2
22.2 / 1

21.7
21.7 / 1

 97.70%

5

The Day After Tomorrow

15.1
153.7 / 3

14.5
153.1 / 3

 95.86%

6

The Stepford Wives
(3,057 theaters)

14.3
14.3 / 1

21.4
21.4 / 1

 66.82%

7

Raising Helen

4.0
31.6 / 3

3.7
31.3 / 3

 91.89%

8

Troy

3.5
125.7 / 5

3.4
125.6 / 5

 97.06%

9

Saved!
(589 theaters)

2.4
3.6 / 3

2.5
3.7 / 3

 96.00%

10

Mean Girls

1.4
81.2 / 7

1.5
81.3 / 7

 93.33%


6/4-6

1

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
(3,855 theaters)

100.2
100.2 / 1

93.7
93.7 / 1

 93.06%

2

Shrek 2

36.0
313.1 / 3

37.9
314.5 / 3

 94.99%

3

The Day After Tomorrow

31.4
132.4 / 2

27.9
128.5 / 2

 87.46%

4

Raising Helen

6.4
23.8 / 2

6.6
24.1 / 2

96.97% 

5

Troy

6.1
119.4 / 4

6.0
119.3 / 4

98.33% 

6

Mean Girls

3.0
78.3 / 6

2.9
78.2 / 6

96.55% 

7

Soul Plane

2.4
10.7 / 2

2.8
11.0 / 2

85.71% 

8

Van Helsing

2.4
114.5 / 5

2.4
114.6 / 5

100.00% 

9

Man on Fire

1.0
75.4 / 7

1.0
75.4 / 7

100.00% 

10

Super Size Me
(205 theaters)

0.8
6.2 / 5

0.8
6.2 / 5

100.00% 


5/28-31
4-day Memorial Day weekend

1

Shrek 2

89.4
254.1 / 2

95.6
260.3 / 2

 93.51%

2

The Day After Tomorrow
(3,425 theaters)

68.2
68.2 / 1

85.8
85.8 / 1

 79.49%

3

Troy

17.0
111.7 / 3

15.3
110.0 / 3

 88.89%

4

Raising Helen
(2,717 theaters)

15.3
15.3 / 1

14.2
14.2 / 1

 92.25%

5

Soul Plane
(1,566 theaters)

9.2
9.2 / 1

7.0
7.0 / 1

 68.57%

6

Van Helsing

7.4
111.3 / 4

6.8
110.7 / 4

 91.18%

7

Mean Girls

6.2
73.4 / 5

6.4
73.7 / 5

 96.88%

8

Man on Fire

2.9
73.8 / 6

2.8
73.7 / 6

 96.43%

9

Breakin' All the Rules

1.7
11.7 / 3

1.1
11.0 / 3

 45.45%

10

13 Going on 30

1.7
54.8 / 6

1.5
54.6 / 6

 86.67%


5/21-23
'Shrek 2' 5-day 5/19-23 gross used for accuracy.

1

Shrek 2
(3,737 theaters)

63.3
89.0 / 1

108.0
129.0 / 1

 68.99%

2

Troy

25.4
87.6 / 2

23.9
86.0 / 2

 93.72%

3

Van Helsing

10.6
100.4 / 3

10.6
100.5 / 3

 100.00%

4

Mean Girls

6.9
64.6 / 4

6.9
64.7 / 4

 100.00%

5

Man on Fire

3.3
69.2 / 5

3.7
69.5 / 5

 89.19%

6

Breakin' All the Rules

2.8
9.0 / 2

2.8
9.1 / 2

 100.00%

7

13 Going on 30

2.5
52.1 / 5

2.5
52.1 / 5

 100.00%

8

New York Minute

2.1
13.5 / 3

1.3
12.6 / 3

 38.46%

9

Laws of Attraction

1.1
17.1 / 4

0.9
16.8 / 4

 77.78%

-

Kill Bill Vol. 2

0.8
62.5 / 6

1.1
62.7 / 6

 72.73%


5/14-16

1

Troy
(3,411 theaters)

57.6
57.6 / 1

46.9
46.9 / 1

 77.19%

2

Van Helsing

23.4
87.8 / 2

20.7
85.1 / 2

 86.96%

3

Mean Girls

8.3
53.5 / 3

10.2
55.4 / 3

 81.37%

4

Breakin' All the Rules
(1,318 theaters)

7.0
7.0 / 1

5.1
5.1 / 1

 62.75%

5

Man on Fire

5.3
64.4 / 4

5.1
64.2 / 4

 96.08%

6

13 Going on 30

3.5
47.9 / 4

4.1
48.5 / 4

 85.37%

7

New York Minute

2.8
9.8 / 2

3.8
10.8 / 2

 73.68%

8

Laws of Attraction

1.9
15.2 / 3

2.0
15.4 / 3

 95.00%

9

Kill Bill Vol. 2

1.6
60.8 / 5

1.6
60.8 / 5

 100.00%

10

Godsend

1.1
13.5 / 3

1.0
13.4 / 3

 90.00%


5/7-9

1

Van Helsing
(3,574 theaters)

44.7
44.7 / 1

51.7
51.7 / 1

86.46%

2

Mean Girls

13.0
41.5 / 2

13.7
42.1 / 2

94.89%

3

New York Minute
(3,006 theaters)

11.3
11.3 / 1

6.0
6.0 / 1

11.67%

4

Man on Fire

9.0
57.2 / 3

8.2
56.4 / 3

90.24%

5

13 Going on 30

5.9
43.0 / 3

5.8
42.9 / 3

98.28%

6

Laws of Attraction

3.7
12.2 / 2

3.7
12.1 / 2

100.00%

7

Kill Bill Vol. 2

3.4
58.4 / 4

3.0
57.8 / 4

86.67%

8

Godsend

3.2
11.7 / 2

2.8
11.4 / 2

85.71%

9

Envy

2.6
10.1 / 2

2.5
10.0 / 2

96.00%

10

The Punisher

1.7
32.6 / 3

1.1
32.1 / 3

45.45%


4/30-5/2

1

Mean Girls
(2,839 theaters)

14.2
14.2 / 1

24.4
24.4 / 1

58.20%

2

Man on Fire

12.7
42.0 / 2

15.0
44.3 / 2

84.67%

3

13 Going on 30

12.5
37.7 / 2

9.9
35.1 / 2

73.74%

4

Laws of Attraction
(2,449 theaters)

7.7
7.7 / 1

6.7
6.7 / 1

85.07%

5

Kill Bill Vol. 2

5.7
52.5 / 3

5.9
52.7 / 3

96.61%

6

Godsend
(2,323 theaters)

5.6
5.6 / 1

6.8
6.8 / 1

82.35%

7

Envy
(2,445 theaters)

4.2
4.2 / 1

6.2
6.2 / 1

67.74%

8

The Punisher

3.1
29.3 / 3

3.5
29.7 / 3

88.57%

9

Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius
(1,332 theaters)

2.5
2.5 / 1

1.2
1.2 / 1

0.00%

10

Home on the Range

2.3
45.6 / 5

2.3
45.6 / 5

100.00%


4/23-25

1

13 Going on 30
(3,438 theaters)

28.2
28.2 / 1

21.1
21.1 / 1

66.35%

2

Man on Fire
(2,979 theaters)

17.2
17.2 / 1

22.8
22.8 / 1

75.44%

3

Kill Bill Vol. 2

12.8
45.4 / 2

10.4
43.0 / 2

76.92%

4

The Punisher

7.0
24.9 / 2

6.3
24.2 / 2

88.89%

5

Home on the Range

3.4
42.4 / 4

3.6
42.6 / 4

94.44%

6

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed

3.2
76.6 / 5

3.4
76.8 / 5

94.12%

7

Johnson Family Vacation

3.1
25.0 / 3

3.1
25.0 / 3

100.00%

8

Hellboy

3.1
54.8 / 4

3.1
54.8 / 4

100.00%

9

The Passion of the Christ

2.7
364.9 / 9

2.2
364.4 / 9

77.27%

10

Walking Tall

2.6
40.5 / 4

2.7
40.5 / 4

96.30%


4/16-18

1

Kill Bill Vol. 2
(2,971 theaters)

20.4
20.4 / 1

25.1
25.1 / 1

 81.27%

2

The Punisher
(2,649 theaters)

14.9
14.9 / 1

13.8
13.8 / 1

 92.03%

3

The Passion of the Christ

7.0
363.7 / 8

4.1
360.8 / 8

 29.27%

4

Hellboy

6.3
51.0 / 3

5.7
50.3 / 3

 89.47%

5

Home on the Range

5.6
37.9 / 3

5.5
37.8 / 3

 98.18%

6

Johnson Family Vacation

5.3
20.3 / 2

6.0
21.0 / 2

 88.33%

7

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed

5.1
72.2 / 4

5.2
72.3 / 4

 98.08%

8

The Alamo

5.1
17.4 / 2

4.1
16.4 / 2

 75.61%

9

Walking Tall

4.8
36.8 / 3

4.6
36.6 / 3

 95.65%

10

Ella Enchanted

3.9
13.2 / 2

4.2
13.6 / 2

 92.86%

11

The Whole Ten Yards

3.6
12.5 / 2

3.6
12.5 / 2

 100.00%

-

Connie and Carla
(1,013 theaters)

2.8
2.8 / 1

3.3
3.3 / 1

 84.85%


4/9-11

1

The Alamo
(2,609 theaters)

14.7
14.7 / 1

9.1
9.1 / 1

38.46%

2

The Passion of the Christ

13.5
351.3 / 7

15.2
353.0 / 7

88.82%

3

Hellboy

12.6
42.6 / 2

10.8
40.8 / 2

83.33%

4

The Girl Next Door
(2,148 theaters)

12.1
12.1 / 1

6.0
6.0 / 1

0.00%

5

Home on the Range

9.9
29.2 / 2

8.1
27.4 / 2

77.78%

6

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed

9.3
64.2 / 3

8.0
62.9 / 3

83.75%

7

Walking Tall

8.6
29.1 / 2

8.4
29.0 / 2

97.62%

8

The Whole Ten Yards
(2,654 theaters)

8.3
8.3 / 1

6.7
6.7 / 1

76.12%

9

Johnson Family Vacation
(1,317 theaters)

8.1
10.6 / 1

9.4
11.8 / 1

86.17%

10

The Prince and Me

6.2
19.2 / 2

5.4
18.4 / 2

85.19%

11

Ella Enchanted
(1,931 theaters)

5.4
5.4 / 1

6.2
6.2 / 1

87.10%

12

The Ladykillers

4.5
30.3 / 3

4.6
30.4 / 3

97.83%


4/2-4

1

Hellboy
(3,028 theaters)

26.5
26.5 / 1

23.2
23.2 / 1

 85.78%

2

Home on the Range
(3,047 theaters)

17.1
17.1 / 1

13.9
13.9 / 1

76.98%

3

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed

15.2
50.2 / 2

14.8
49.7 / 2

97.30%

4

Walking Tall
(2,836 theaters)

13.3
13.3 / 1

15.5
15.5 / 1

85.81%

5

The Passion of the Christ

9.7
330.0 / 6

10.6
330.9 / 6

91.51%

6

The Prince and Me
(2,682 theaters)

8.4
8.4 / 1

9.4
9.4 / 1

89.36%

7

The Ladykillers

7.8
24.2 / 2

7.1
23.5 / 2

90.14%

8

Jersey Girl
(1,821 theaters)

5.8
16.5 / 2

5.1
15.8/ 2

86.27%

9

Dawn of the Dead

5.6
52.8 / 3

4.6
51.8 / 3

78.26%

10

Taking Lives

4.1
28.1 / 3

3.5
27.5 / 3

82.86%

11

Starsky and Hutch

4.0
82.7 / 5

3.2
81.9 / 5

75.00%

12

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

3.4
21.9 / 3

3.4
21.9 / 3

 100.00%

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Forecast Archive

2004

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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