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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.
(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (late Thursday/early Friday, 12 a.m. Pacific) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info, making the Forecast a pure test of predicting accuracy that uses only stats on this site readily available to all in its formulations.)

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

OCTOBER-DECEMBER, 2004

12/31-1/2

1

Meet the Fockers

35.6
156.0 / 2

41.7
162.5 / 2

85.37%

2

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

13.9
94.0 / 3

14.6
94.6 / 3

95.21%

3

Fat Albert

12.2
35.3 / 2

10.2
31.5 / 2

80.39%

4

Ocean's Twelve

9.0
106.3 / 4

9.4
107.0 / 4

95.74%

5

The Aviator

8.3
28.2 / 3

11.4
31.5 / 3

72.81%

6

The Polar Express

6.1
155.7 / 8

5.6
155.1 / 8

91.07%

7

Spanglish

5.4
29.9 / 3

6.2
31.0 / 3

87.10%

-

Darkness

4.7
16.7 / 2

4.6
16.6 / 2

97.83%

-

The Phantom of the Opera

4.3
15.7 / 2

4.8
16.2 / 2

89.58%

-

The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

4.1
14.5 / 2

4.4
14.8 / 2

93.18%


12/24-26

1

Meet the Fockers
(3,518 theaters)

30.8
49.7 / 1

46.1
70.5 / 1

66.81%

2

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

17.2
65.4 / 2

12.6
59.4 / 2

63.49%

3

The Aviator
(1,796 theaters)

12.4
13.8 / 1

8.6
10.0 / 1

55.81%

4

Ocean's Twelve

11.7
91.3 / 3

8.4
86.6 / 3

60.71%

5

The Polar Express

9.4
143.3 / 7

6.5
140.2 / 7

55.38%

6

The Phantom of the Opera
(622 theaters)

9.2
14.9 / 1

4.0
6.3 / 1

0.00%

7

Spanglish

5.7
20.1 / 2

4.6
18.2 / 2

76.09%

8

The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou
(1,105 theaters)

5.2
5.6 / 1

4.5
5.0 / 1

84.44%

9

Fat Albert
(2,674 theaters)

5.0
5.0 / 1

10.0
10.0 / 1

50.00%

10

Christmas with the Kranks

4.5
71.4 / 5

2.6
68.8 / 5

26.92%

11

National Treasure

4.4
141.7 / 6

4.0
141.1 / 6

90.00%

12

Darkness
(1,700 theaters)

4.2
4.2 / 1

6.2
5.6 / 1

67.74%

13

Blade: Trinity

3.8
43.4 / 3

3.0
42.1 / 3

73.33%

14

The Flight of the Phoenix

2.9
11.0 / 2

2.7
10.5 / 2

92.59%


12/17-19

1

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
(3,620 theaters)

31.7
31.7 / 1

30.1
30.1 / 1

94.68%

2

Ocean's Twelve

19.9
70.2 / 2

18.1
68.5 / 2

90.06%

3

Spanglish
(2,438 theaters)

12.2
12.2 / 1

8.8
8.8 / 1

61.36%

4

The Polar Express

8.2
123.0 / 6

8.4
123.4 / 6

97.62%

5

The Flight of the Phoenix
(2,604 theaters)

8.1
8.1 / 1

5.0
5.0 / 1

38.00%

6

Blade: Trinity

6.6
35.4 / 2

6.8
35.6 / 2

97.06%

7

National Treasure

6.0
132.7 / 5

6.0
132.7 / 5

100.00%

8

Christmas with the Kranks

5.5
62.0 / 4

5.4
62.0 / 4

98.15%

9

The Incredibles

3.2
237.0 / 7

3.1
237.0 / 7

96.77%

10

Closer
(1,090 theaters)

2.7
18.2 / 3

3.4
18.8 / 3

79.41%


12/10-12

1

Ocean's Twelve
(3,290 theaters)

36.0
36.0 / 1

39.2
39.2 / 1

91.84%

2

Blade: Trinity
(2,912 theaters)

27.3
36.3 / 1

16.1
24.5 / 1

30.43%

3

National Treasure

11.6
126.0 / 4

9.8
124.1 / 4

81.63%

4

The Polar Express

8.6
108.6 / 5

9.6
109.8 / 5

89.58%

5

Christmas with the Kranks

7.9
55.1 / 3

7.6
54.8 / 3

96.05%

6

The Incredibles

6.2
233.8 / 6

5.0
232.6 / 6

76.00%

7

Closer
(622 theaters)

4.6
14.7 / 2

3.7
13.7 / 2

75.68%

8

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie

4.5
73.7 / 4

4.4
73.6 / 4

97.73%

9

Alexander

2.1
33.4 / 3

1.5
32.6 / 3

60.00%

10

Finding Neverland

2.1
14.7 / 5

1.7
14.2 / 5

76.47%


12/3-5

1

National Treasure

14.1
107.3 / 3

17.0
110.1 / 3

82.94%

2

The Polar Express

10.7
95.9 / 4

10.8
96.1 / 4

99.07%

3

Christmas with the Kranks

9.6
43.4 / 2

11.2
44.9 / 2

85.71%

4

The Incredibles

9.2
217.2 / 5

9.0
225.9 / 5

97.78%

5

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie

5.6
66.2 / 3

7.7
68.2 / 3

72.73%

6

Alexander

4.7
29.6 / 2

4.8
29.7 / 2

97.92%

7

Closer
(476 theaters)

4.2
4.2 / 1

7.7
7.7 / 1

54.55%

8

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

2.9
36.5 / 4

2.8
36.3 / 4

96.43%

9

Finding Neverland

2.6
11.5 / 4

2.8
11.7 / 4

92.86%

-

Sideways

1.7
12.4 / 7

1.8
12.5 / 7

94.44%


11/26-28

1

The Incredibles

26.4
217.2 / 4

23.6
214.3 / 4

88.14%

2

National Treasure

24.3
76.4 / 2

32.2
87.3 / 2

75.47%

3

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie

21.8
63.6 / 2

17.8
58.8 / 2

77.53%

4

Christmas with the Kranks
(3,393 theaters)

21.2
29.7 / 1

21.6
30.8 / 1

98.15%

5

The Polar Express

19.0
80.7 / 3

19.4
81.5 / 3

97.94%

6

Alexander
(2,445 theaters)

15.3
23.9 / 1

13.7
21.8 / 1

88.32%

7

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

7.6
34.0 / 3

6.2
32.0 / 3

77.42%

8

Ray

3.6
65.1 / 5

4.0
65.1 / 5

90.00%

9

After the Sunset

3.5
25.0 / 3

3.1
24.3 / 3

87.10%

10

Finding Neverland
(513 theaters)

2.9
5.4 / 3

4.7
7.8 / 3

61.70%


11/19-21

1

The Incredibles

31.5
182.5 / 3

26.5
177.6 / 3

81.13%

2

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie
(3,212 theaters)

30.1
30.1 / 1

32.0
32.0 / 1

94.06%

3

National Treasure
(3,017 theaters)

21.2
21.2 / 1

35.1
35.1 / 1

60.40%

4

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
(2,452 theaters)

16.5
27.9 / 2

10.0
21.5 / 2

35.00%

5

The Polar Express

16.1
51.9 / 2

15.7
51.5 / 2

97.45%

6

After the Sunset

6.9
21.2 / 2

5.1
19.1 / 2

64.71%

7

Ray

5.3
59.9 / 4

4.6
59.2 / 4

84.78%

8

The Grudge

4.0
104.6 / 5

3.8
104.4 / 5

94.74%

9

Saw

3.6
51.1 / 4

2.9
50.4 / 4

75.86%

10

Seed of Chucky

3.5
13.6 / 2

3.2
13.5 / 2

90.63%


11/12-14

1

The Incredibles

46.7
136.2 / 2

50.3
143.3 / 2

92.84%

2

The Polar Express
(3,650 theaters)

26.8
33.0 / 1

23.3
30.6 / 1

84.98%

3

After the Sunset
(2,700+ theaters)

12.7
12.7 / 1

11.1
11.1 / 1

85.59%

4

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
(530 theaters)

8.8
8.8 / 1

8.7
8.7 / 1

98.85%

5

Ray

8.5
52.2 / 3

8.4
52.5 / 3

98.81%

6

Seed of Chucky
(2,000+ theaters)

8.3
8.3 / 1

8.8
8.8 / 1

94.32%

7

The Grudge

7.5
98.8 / 4

7.0
99.2 / 4

92.86%

8

Saw

6.7
45.5 / 3

6.4
45.8 / 3

95.31%

9

Shall We Dance

4.1
48.3 / 4

4.0
48.7 / 4

97.50%

10

Alfie

3.8
11.9 / 2

2.7
11.1 / 2

59.26%


11/5-7

1

The Incredibles
(3,933 theaters)

78.7
78.7 / 1

70.5
70.5 / 1

88.37%

2

Ray

14.4
40.4 / 2

13.6
39.6 / 2

94.12%

3

The Grudge

10.4
86.5 / 3

12.7
88.8 / 3

81.89%

4

Saw

8.9
33.2 / 2

11.1
35.4 / 2

80.18%

5

Alfie
(2,215 theaters)

4.8
4.8 / 1

6.2
6.2 / 1

77.42%

6

Shall We Dance

4.5
41.0 / 4

5.7
42.1 / 4

78.95%

7

Shark Tale

3.8
153.2 / 6

4.6
154.0 / 6

82.61%

8

Friday Night Lights

2.5
56.8 / 5

3.0
57.3 / 5

83.33%

9

Ladder 49

1.9
69.2 / 6

2.7
70.0 / 6

70.37%

10

Team America: World Police

1.5
30.1 / 4

1.9
30.5 / 4

78.95%


10/29-31

1

The Grudge

20.0
68.6 / 2

21.8
70.7 / 2

91.74%

2

Ray
(2,006 theaters)

17.6
17.6 / 1

20.0
20.0 / 1

88.00%

3

Saw
(2,335 theaters)

13.9
13.9 / 1

18.3
18.3 / 1

75.96%

4

Shark Tale

9.0
148.3 / 5

7.5
146.9 / 5

80.00%

5

Shall We Dance

6.5
34.1 / 3

6.3
33.9 / 3

96.83%

6

Friday Night Lights

4.4
53.2 / 4

4.1
52.9 / 4

92.68%

7

Team America: World Police

3.6
27.8 / 3

3.1
27.2 / 3

83.87%

8

Ladder 49

3.4
66.3 / 5

3.3
66.1 / 5

96.97%

9

Surviving Christmas

2.2
7.8 / 2

2.4
8.0 / 2

91.67%

10

I Heart Huckabees

2.0
8.7 / 5

1.7
8.4 / 5

82.35%

-

Birth
(550 theaters)

1.9
1.9 / 1

1.7
1.7 / 1

88.24%


10/22-24

1

The Grudge
(3,245 theaters)

22.3
22.3 / 1

39.1
39.1 / 1

57.03%

2

Shark Tale

14.5
137.0 / 4

14.3
137.0 / 4

98.60%

3

Shall We Dance

9.1
24.9 / 2

8.6
24.4 / 2

94.19%

4

Friday Night Lights

7.4
47.7 / 3

6.9
47.3 / 3

92.75%

5

Team America: World Police

6.7
22.2 / 2

6.4
22.1 / 2

95.31%

6

Surviving Christmas
(2,750 theaters)

6.0
6.0 / 1

4.4
4.4 / 1

63.64%

7

Ladder 49

5.2
61.2 / 4

5.3
61.4 / 4

98.11%

8

Taxi

4.3
29.9 / 3

4.1
29.7 / 3

95.12%

9

I Heart Huckabees
(785 theaters)

3.7
6.6 / 4

2.9
5.8 / 4

72.41%

10

The Forgotten

3.7
62.4 / 5

3.3
62.0 / 5

87.88%


10/15-17

1

Team America: World Police
(2,539 theaters)

28.6
28.6 / 1

12.1
12.1 / 1

0.00%

2

Shark Tale

19.2
115.8 / 3

22.0
118.7 / 3

87.27%

3

Friday Night Lights

11.7
37.0 / 2

11.7
37.8 / 2

95.90%

4

Shall We Dance
(1,772 theaters)

11.1
11.1 / 1

11.8
11.8 / 1

94.07%

5

Ladder 49

8.0
53.1 / 3

8.5
53.7 / 3

94.12%

6

Taxi

5.8
21.7 / 2

7.9
23.9 / 2

73.42%

7

The Forgotten

4.7
55.7 / 4

6.0
57.2 / 4

78.33%

8

Raise Your Voice

2.4
7.6 / 2

2.8
7.9 / 2

85.71%

9

The Motorcycle Diaries
(250 theaters)

1.5
5.5 / 4

1.8
5.7 / 4

83.33%

10

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

1.1
35.7 / 5

1.2
35.9 / 5

91.67%


10/8-10

1

Shark Tale

27.7
83.5 / 2

31.3
87.4 / 2

 88.50%

2

Friday Night Lights
(2,667 theaters)

18.3
18.3 / 1

20.3
20.3 / 1

 90.15%

3

Ladder 49

13.5
41.3 / 2

13.1
41.0 / 2

 96.95%

4

Taxi
(3,001 theaters)

11.3
11.9 / 1

12.0
12.7 / 1

 94.17%

5

Raise Your Voice
(2,521 theaters)

9.5
9.5 / 1

4.0
4.0 / 1

 0.00%

6

The Forgotten

7.1
48.1 / 3

7.6
48.7 / 3

 93.42%

7

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

1.9
33.5 / 4

2.3
33.9 / 4

 82.61%

8

Shaun of the Dead

1.8
9.6 / 3

1.7
9.5 / 3

 94.12%

9

Woman, Thou Art Loosed

1.5
4.4 / 2

1.1
4.1 / 2

 63.64%

10

Mr. 3000

1.3
21.0 / 4

0.9
20.7 / 4

 55.56%


10/1-3

1

Shark Tale
(4,016 theaters)

50.2
50.2 / 1

47.6
47.6 / 1

 94.54%

2

Ladder 49
(3,260 theaters)

19.3
19.3 / 1

22.1
22.1 / 1

 87.33%

3

The Forgotten

11.3
37.6 / 2

11.8
38.1 / 2

 95.76%

4

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

3.4
30.7 / 3

3.3
30.6 / 3

 96.97%

5

Mr. 3000

2.9
19.5 / 3

2.5
19.1 / 3

 84.00%

6

First Daughter

2.1
7.1 / 2

2.2
7.1 / 2

 95.45%

7

Cellular

2.0
28.1 / 4

2.0
28.2 / 4

 100.00%

8

Shaun of the Dead

2.0
6.5 / 2

2.5
6.9 / 2

80.00% 

9

Resident Evil: Apocalypse

1.8
46.5 / 4

2.3
47.0 / 4

78.26% 

10

Wimbledon

1.6
14.7 / 3

1.7
14.8 / 3

94.12% 

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Forecast Archive

2004

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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