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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray

The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (late Thursday/early Friday, 12 a.m. Pacific) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info, making the Forecast a pure test of predicting accuracy that uses only stats on this site readily available to all in its formulations.)


Last update: 4/7/05
 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

 

JANUARY-MARCH, 2005

3/25-27

1

Guess Who
(3,147 theaters)

24.6
24.6 / 1

20.7
20.7 / 1

81.16%

2

Miss Congeniality 2
(3,233 theaters)

18.2
22.5 / 1

14.0
17.1 / 1

70.00%

3

The Ring Two

14.5
58.3 / 2

13.6
57.9 / 2

93.38%

4

Robots

12.8
87.4 / 3

12.9
87.3 / 3

99.22%

5

The Pacifier

8.9
86.8 / 4

8.1
85.8 / 4

90.12%

7

Ice Princess

4.7
14.4 / 2

3.7
13.3 / 2

72.97%

6

Hitch

4.6
166.8 / 7

4.3
166.4 / 7

93.02%

8

Hostage

3.4
25.5 / 3

4.1
26.2 / 3

82.93%

9

Be Cool

3.4
53.1 / 4

2.8
52.3 / 4

78.57%

10

Million Dollar Baby

2.9
94.6 / 15

2.6
94.1 / 15

88.46%


3/18-20

1

The Ring Two
(3,332 theaters)

56.2
56.2 / 1

35.1
35.1 / 1

39.89%

2

Robots

22.7
67.8 / 2

21.0
66.1 / 2

91.90%

3

Ice Princess
(2,501 theaters)

13.3
13.3 / 1

6.8
6.8 / 1

4.41%

4

The Pacifier

11.7
71.4 / 3

12.5
72.3 / 3

93.60%

5

Hitch

5.4
158.3 / 6

6.5
159.3 / 6

83.08%

6

Hostage

5.3
18.9 / 2

6.0
19.5 / 2

88.33%

7

Be Cool

5.1
46.6 / 3

5.9
47.3 / 3

86.44%

8

Million Dollar Baby

3.2
89.2 / 14

4.0
89.9 / 14

80.00%

9

Diary of a Mad Black Woman

2.4
47.7 / 4

2.4
47.7 / 4

100.00%

10

Constantine

1.9
70.0 / 5

2.3
70.4 / 5

82.61%


3/11-13

1

Robots
(3,776 theaters)

40.1
40.1 / 1

36.0
36.0 / 1

88.61%

2

The Pacifier

17.0
53.3 / 2

18.2
54.5 / 2

93.41%

3

Be Cool

11.8
40.0 / 2

10.3
38.4 / 2

85.44%

4

Hostage
(2,123 theaters)

8.0
8.0 / 1

10.2
10.2 / 1

78.43%

5

Hitch

7.8
148.8 / 5

8.8
149.8 / 5

88.64%

6

Diary of a Mad Black Woman

5.8
44.9 / 3

4.9
44.0 / 3

81.63%

7

Million Dollar Baby

5.5
84.5 / 13

5.2
84.1 / 13

94.23%

8

Constantine

3.3
65.9 / 4

3.8
66.5 / 4

86.84%

9

The Passion Recut
(954 theaters)

3.0
3.0 / 1

0.2
0.2 / 1

0.00%

-

Cursed

1.5
17.7 / 3

1.6
17.8 / 3

93.75%


3/4-6

1

Be Cool
(3,216 theaters)

22.6
22.6 / 1

23.5
23.5 / 1

96.17%

2

The Pacifier
(3,131 theaters)

21.5
21.5 / 1

30.6
30.6 / 1

70.26%

3

Diary of a Mad Black Woman
(1,703 theaters)

13.8
39.8 / 2

11.0
37.1 / 2

74.55%

4

Hitch

11.7
137.5 / 4

12.1
138.0 / 4

96.69%

5

Million Dollar Baby

9.7
78.1 / 12

8.1
76.6 / 12

80.25%

6

Constantine

6.3
60.8 / 3

6.1
60.7 / 3

96.72%

7

The Jacket
(1,331 theaters)

5.2
5.2 / 1

2.7
2.7 / 1

7.41%

8

Because of Winn-Dixie

4.6
28.1 / 3

3.2
26.8 / 3

56.25%

9

Man of the House

4.3
14.8 / 2

3.5
14.0 / 2

77.14%

10

Cursed

4.1
15.4 / 2

3.9
15.3 / 2

94.87%

11

The Aviator

2.7
97.4 / 12

2.3
97.0 / 12

82.61%

12

Sideways

2.5
66.6 / 20

2.1
66.2 / 20

80.95%


2/25-27

1

Hitch

19.7
120.8 / 3

20.4
121.4 / 3

96.57%

2

Constantine

14.9
54.0 / 2

12.0
51.0 / 2

75.83%

3

Cursed
(2,805 theaters)

14.0
14.0 / 1

9.6
9.6 / 1

54.17%

4

Diary of a Mad Black Woman
(1,483 theaters)

11.6
11.6 / 1

21.9
21.9 / 1

52.97%

5

Man of the House
(2,422 theaters)

7.6
7.6 / 1

8.9
8.9 / 1

85.39%

6

Because of Winn-Dixie

7.0
22.4 / 2

6.8
22.3 / 2

97.06%

7

Million Dollar Baby

5.8
63.3 / 11

7.3
64.9 / 11

79.45%

8

Are We There Yet?

4.4
76.8 / 6

4.1
76.5 / 6

92.68%

9

Son of the Mask

4.2
14.6 / 2

3.8
14.0 / 2

89.47%

10

The Aviator

3.2
93.1 / 11

3.7
93.6 / 11

86.49%

11

Sideways

3.1
62.7 / 19

3.5
63.2 / 19

88.57%

12

Boogeyman

2.9
45.6 / 4

2.1
44.7 / 4

61.90%


2/18-21
4-day President's Day Weekend

1

Hitch

32.6
90.8 / 2

36.7
95.0 / 2

88.83%

2

Constantine
(3,006 theaters)

30.6
30.6 / 1

33.6
33.6 / 1

91.07%

3

Because of Winn-Dixie
(3,188 theaters)

15.5
15.5 / 1

13.2
13.2 / 1

82.58%

4

Son of the Mask
(2,966 theaters)

12.3
12.3 / 1

9.1
9.1 / 1

64.84%

5

Million Dollar Baby

8.6
56.1 / 10

8.1
55.6 / 10

93.83%

6

Are We There Yet?

7.4
70.3 / 5

8.1
71.1 / 5

91.36%

7

Boogeyman

6.9
42.5 / 3

6.1
41.7 / 3

86.89%

8

Pooh's Heffalump Movie

6.2
13.4 / 2

5.3
12.6 / 2

83.02%

9

The Aviator

5.4
89.4 / 10

4.9
88.9 / 10

89.80%

10

Sideways

4.9
59.1 / 18

4.5
58.7 / 18

91.11%


2/11-13

1

Hitch
(3,575 theaters)

35.8
35.8 / 1

43.1
43.1 / 1

83.06%

2

Boogeyman

8.4
30.8 / 2

10.2
32.8 / 2

82.35%

3

Pooh's Heffalump Movie
(2,529 theaters)

7.9
7.9 / 1

5.8
5.8 / 1

63.79%

4

Are We There Yet?

7.2
60.2 / 4

8.2
61.3 / 4

87.80%

5

Million Dollar Baby

6.8
44.2 / 9

7.4
44.9 / 9

91.89%

6

The Wedding Date

6.6
20.4 / 2

5.5
19.4 / 2

80.00%

7

Hide and Seek

4.5
42.5 / 3

5.4
43.4 / 3

83.33%

8

The Aviator

4.2
81.8 / 9

4.7
82.3 / 9

89.36%

9

Sideways

3.5
51.8 / 17

4.5
52.8 / 17

77.78%

10

Meet the Fockers

3.5
270.0 / 8

3.5
269.9 / 8

100.00%


2/4-6

1

Boogeyman
(3,052 theaters)

17.2
17.2 / 1

19.0
19.0 / 1

90.53%

2

Hide and Seek

10.7
37.5 / 2

8.9
35.7 / 2

79.78%

3

Million Dollar Baby

9.8
35.8 / 8

8.7
34.4 / 8

87.36%

4

Are We There Yet?

9.5
50.1 / 3

10.6
51.3 / 3

89.62%

5

The Aviator

5.7
76.2 / 8

5.4
75.9 / 8

94.44%

6

Meet the Fockers

5.2
265.5 / 7

4.8
265.2 / 7

91.67%

7

Sideways

4.8
46.8 / 16

4.7
46.7 / 16

97.87%

8

Coach Carter

4.7
59.8 / 4

4.2
59.3 / 4

88.10%

9

Racing Stripes

4.5
40.6 / 4

4.3
40.4 / 4

95.35%

10

In Good Company

3.9
41.3 / 6

3.3
40.8 / 6

81.82%

11

The Wedding Date
(1,695 theaters)

3.8
3.8 / 1

11.1
11.1 / 1

34.23%

12

Hotel Rwanda
(823 theaters)

2.9
11.8 / 7

2.3
11.2 / 7

73.91%


1/28-30

1

Hide and Seek
(3,005 theaters)

19.7
19.7 / 1

22.0
22.0 / 1

89.55%

2

Million Dollar Baby
(2,010 theaters)

13.8
23.1 / 7

12.3
21.6 / 7

87.80%

3

Are We There Yet?

10.5
32.6 / 2

16.3
38.5 / 2

64.42%

4

Coach Carter

7.7
53.2 / 3

8.0
53.6 / 3

96.25%

5

Meet the Fockers

7.0
257.4 / 6

8.0
258.4 / 6

87.50%

6

The Aviator

6.4
67.2 / 7

7.6
68.2 / 7

84.21%

7

Sideways
(1,694 theaters)

5.8
39.5 / 15

6.3
40.1 / 15

92.06%

8

In Good Company

5.7
35.4 / 5

6.2
36.0 / 5

91.94%

9

Racing Stripes

5.4
33.9 / 3

6.5
35.1 / 3

83.08%

10

Alone in the Dark
(2,142 theaters)

5.3
5.3 / 1

2.8
2.8 / 1

10.71%

11

Assault on Precinct 13

4.0
14.3 / 1

4.3
14.8 / 1

93.02%

12

The Phantom of the Opera

3.8
38.6 / 6

4.0
38.9 / 6

95.00%


1/21-23

1

Coach Carter

15.8
48.0 / 2

10.5
42.8 / 2

49.52%

2

Are We There Yet?
(2,709 theaters)

12.7
12.7 / 1

18.6
18.6 / 1

68.28%

3

Meet the Fockers

11.5
249.1 / 5

9.7
247.2 / 5

81.44%

4

In Good Company

10.1
29.5 / 4

8.0
27.4 / 4

73.75%

5

Racing Stripes

9.6
29.9 / 2

6.8
27.1 / 2

58.82%

6

Assault on Precinct 13
(2,297 theaters)

7.0
8.6 / 1

6.5
8.0 / 1

92.31%

7

White Noise

6.1
50.5 / 3

5.0
49.4 / 3

78.00%

8

Elektra

5.7
22.1 / 2

4.0
20.4 / 2

57.50%

9

The Aviator

5.1
58.4 / 6

4.8
58.0 / 6

93.75%

10

The Phantom of the Opera
(1,511 theaters)

4.5
33.1 / 5

4.6
33.1 / 5

97.83%


1/14-17
4-day Weekend

1

Coach Carter
(2,524 theaters)

24.9
24.9 / 1

29.2
29.2 / 1

85.27%

2

Meet the Fockers

20.1
231.9 / 4

22.5
234.3 / 4

89.33%

3

Elektra
(3,204 theaters)

18.4
18.4 / 1

14.8
14.8 / 1

75.68%

4

Racing Stripes
(3,185 theaters)

17.2
17.2 / 1

18.9
18.9 / 1

91.01%

5

White Noise

14.3
43.3 / 2

13.8
42.9 / 2

96.38%

6

In Good Company
(1,565 theaters)

9.0
9.5 / 3

16.6
17.1 / 3

54.22%

7

The Aviator

6.6
51.8 / 5

6.4
51.5 / 5

96.88%

8

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

6.2
113.3 / 5

5.3
112.4 / 5

83.02%

9

The Phantom of the Opera
(907 theaters)

4.9
27.8 / 4

4.6
27.5 / 4

93.48%

-

House of Flying Daggers
(1,190 theaters)

3.7
8.9 / 7

2.3
7.5 / 7

39.13%


1/7-9

1

Meet the Fockers

24.9
200.5 / 3

28.5
204.3 / 3

87.37%

2

White Noise
(2,258 theaters)

14.1
14.1 / 1

24.1
24.1 / 1

58.51%

3

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

7.8
105.9 / 3

7.4
105.6 / 3

94.59%

4

The Aviator

7.2
42.5 / 4

7.5
42.8 / 4

96.00%

5

Ocean's Twelve

5.4
115.4 / 5

5.3
115.3 / 5

98.11%

6

Fat Albert

4.6
39.8 / 3

5.7
41.0 / 3

80.70%

7

Spanglish

3.9
37.1 / 4

4.3
37.5 / 4

90.70%

8

The Phantom of the Opera

3.3
21.4 / 3

3.4
21.5 / 3

97.06%

9

The Polar Express

3.1
159.7 / 9

2.1
158.7 / 9

52.38%

-

The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

2.7
19.4 / 3

2.7
19.4 / 3

100.00%

Forecast Archive

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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Copyright © 1998-2004 by Brandon Gray. All Rights Reserved.