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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (early Friday) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info like tracking reports. Only stats on this site that are readily available to all are used in his formulations.)
 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

APRIL-JUNE, 2006

6/23-25

1

Click
(3,750 theaters)

46.9
46.9 / 1

40.0
40.0 / 1

82.75%

2

Cars

20.6
153.8 / 3

23.3
156.7 / 3

88.41%

3

Nacho Libre

14.9
55.5 / 2

12.7
53.2 / 2

82.68%

4

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

9.9
43.3 / 2

9.8
43.1 / 2

98.98%

5

The Lake House

7.8
28.6 / 2

8.8
29.8 / 2

88.64%

6

Waist Deep
(1,004 theaters)

6.0
6.0 / 1

9.4
9.4 / 1

63.83%

7

The Break-Up

5.6
103.2 / 4

6.6
104.2 / 4

84.85%

8

X-Men: The Last Stand

4.4
224.0 / 5

4.8
224.5 / 5

91.67%

9

Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties

4.2
15.5 / 2

5.2
16.5 / 2

80.77%

10

The Da Vinci Code

3.2
204.7 / 6

4.1
205.6 / 6

78.05%


6/16-18

1

Cars

33.7
117.0 / 2

33.7
117.1 / 2

100.00%

2

Nacho Libre
(3,070 theaters)

28.3
28.3 / 1

28.3
28.3 / 1

100.00%

3

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
(3,026 theaters)

20.8
20.8 / 1

24.0
24.0 / 1

86.67%

4

Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties
(2,945 theaters)

16.6
16.6 / 1

7.3
7.3 / 1

0.00%

5

The Lake House
(2,645 theaters)

16.5
16.5 / 1

13.6
13.6 / 1

78.68%

6

The Break-Up

11.2
93.7 / 3

9.8
92.3 / 3

85.71%

7

X-Men: The Last Stand

8.0
216.5 / 4

7.8
216.2 / 4

97.44%

8

The Omen

6.8
48.3 / 2

5.6
47.2 / 2

78.57%

9

Over the Hedge

5.9
140.7 / 5

4.3
139.0 / 5

62.79%

10

The Da Vinci Code

5.9
199.4 / 5

5.3
198.8 / 5

88.68%


6/9-11

1

Cars
(3,985 theaters)

74.7
74.7 / 1

60.1
60.1 / 1

75.71%

2

The Break-Up

20.0
73.6 / 1

20.3
73.9 / 1

98.52%

3

The Omen
(2,723 theaters)

18.8
39.8 / 1

16.0
36.3 / 1

82.50%

4

X-Men: The Last Stand

16.1
202.2 / 3

16.1
202.2 / 3

100.00%

5

Over the Hedge

11.1
131.1 / 4

10.2
130.2 / 4

91.18%

6

The Da Vinci Code

10.5
189.2 / 4

10.4
189.2 / 4

99.04%

7

A Prairie Home Companion
(760 theaters)

4.3
4.3 / 1

4.6
4.6 / 1

93.48%

8

Mission: Impossible III

2.6
127.1 / 6

3.0
127.5 / 6

86.67%

9

RV

1.9
64.9 / 7

1.9
64.9 / 7

100.00%

10

Poseidon

1.8
54.9 / 5

1.8
54.9 / 5

100.00%


6/2-4

1

X-Men: The Last Stand

40.4
181.3 / 2

34.0
175.3 / 2

81.18%

2

The Break-Up
(3,067 theaters)

31.1
31.1 / 1

39.2
39.2 / 1

79.34%

3

Over the Hedge

16.7
108.2 / 3

20.6
112.4 / 3

81.07%

4

The Da Vinci Code

16.2
169.5 / 3

18.6
172.0 / 3

87.10%

5

Mission: Impossible III

3.7
121.6 / 5

4.7
122.7 / 5

78.72%

6

Poseidon

2.9
51.1 / 4

3.5
51.8 / 4

82.86%

7

RV

2.8
61.3 / 6

3.2
61.7 / 6

87.50%

8

See No Evil

1.3
11.7 / 3

2.0
12.4 / 3

65.00%

9

Just My Luck

1.0
15.7 / 4

0.9
15.6 / 4

88.89%

10

Ice Age: The Meltdown

0.5
191.4 / 10

0.6
191.5 / 10

83.33%


5/26-29
4-day Memorial Day Weekend

1

X-Men: The Last Stand
(3,689 theaters)

101.4
101.4 / 1

122.9
122.9 / 1

82.51%

2

The Da Vinci Code

41.7
143.5 / 2

42.4
144.9 / 2

98.35%

3

Over the Hedge

35.2
83.9 / 2

35.3
84.4 / 2

99.72%

4

Mission: Impossible III

7.2
114.4 / 4

8.9
116.2 / 4

80.90%

5

Poseidon

5.4
45.0 / 3

7.1
46.7 / 3

76.06%

6

RV

4.3
56.1 / 5

5.4
57.3 / 5

79.63%

7

See No Evil

2.3
8.2 / 2

3.4
9.4 / 2

67.65%

8

Just My Luck

2.1
13.7 / 3

2.5
14.1 / 3

84.00%

9

United 93

0.8
29.6 / 5

1.1
29.9 / 5

72.73%

10

An American Haunting

0.7
14.7 / 4

0.9
14.9 / 4

77.78%


5/19-21

1

The Da Vinci Code
(3,735 theaters)

70.0
70.0 / 1

77.1
77.1 / 1

90.79%

2

Over the Hedge
(4,059 theaters)

35.5
35.5 / 1

38.5
38.5 / 1

92.21%

3

Mission: Impossible III

12.9
105.0 / 3

11.3
103.5 / 3

85.84%

4

Poseidon

10.6
38.1 / 2

9.2
36.8 / 2

84.78%

5

RV

6.0
51.3 / 4

5.0
50.3 / 4

80.00%

6

Just My Luck

3.4
10.5 / 2

3.4
10.5 / 2

100.00%

7

See No Evil
(1,257 theaters)

3.1
3.1 / 1

4.6
4.6 / 1

67.39%

8

United 93

2.0
28.8 / 4

1.4
28.3 / 4

57.14%

9

An American Haunting

1.9
13.8 / 3

1.5
13.4 / 3

73.33%

10

Stick It

1.7
24.6 / 4

1.0
23.9 / 4

30.00%


5/12-14

1

Poseidon
(3,555 theaters)

27.8
27.8 / 1

22.2
22.2 / 1

74.77%

2

Mission: Impossible III

21.4
81.5 / 2

25.0
85.1 / 2

85.60%

3

Just My Luck
(2,541 theaters)

11.5
11.5 / 1

5.7
5.7 / 1

0.00%

4

RV

7.4
40.7 / 3

10.0
43.3 / 3

74.00%

5

United 93

3.1
25.1 / 3

3.5
25.6 / 3

88.57%

6

Stick It

3.2
22.2 / 3

3.2
22.1 / 3

100.00%

7

An American Haunting

2.8
10.0 / 2

3.6
10.8 / 2

77.78%

8

Goal! The Dream Begins
(1,007 theaters)

2.8
2.8 / 1

1.9
1.9 / 1

52.63%

9

Akeelah and the Bee

2.3
13.6 / 3

2.4
14.0 / 3

95.83%

-

The Sentinel

1.5
33.5 / 4

1.5
33.6 / 4

100.00%


5/5-7

1

Mission: Impossible III
(4,054 theaters)

63.3
63.3 / 1

47.7
47.7 / 1

67.30%

2

RV

10.3
30.2 / 2

11.0
30.9 / 2

93.64%

3

Hoot
(3,018 theaters)

8.5
8.5 / 1

3.4
3.4 / 1

0.00%

4

United 93

6.5
21.3 / 2

5.3
20.2 / 2

77.36%

5

Stick It

5.7
18.1 / 2

5.5
17.9 / 2

96.36%

6

An American Haunting
(1,667 theaters)

5.7
5.7 / 1

5.8
5.8 / 1

98.28%

7

Silent Hill

4.5
41.5/ 3

4.0
40.9/ 3

87.50%

8

The Sentinel

4.5
32.4 / 3

3.1
30.9 / 3

54.84%

9

Ice Age: The Meltdown

4.3
183.6 / 6

4.2
183.4 / 6

97.62%

10

Scary Movie 4

4.1
84.1 / 4

3.7
83.6 / 4

89.19%

11

Akeelah and the Bee

4.0
11.3 / 2

3.4
10.6 / 2

82.35%


4/28-30

1

RV
(3,639 theaters)

21.6
21.6 / 1

16.4
16.4 / 1

68.29%

2

United 93
(1,795 theaters)

18.5
18.5 / 1

11.5
11.5 / 1

39.13%

3

Akeelah and the Bee
(2,195 theaters)

9.6
9.6 / 1

6.0
6.0 / 1

40.00%

4

Silent Hill

8.7
33.6 / 2

9.3
34.3 / 2

93.55%

5

Ice Age: The Meltdown

8.4
178.5 / 5

7.2
177.9 / 5

83.33%

6

The Sentinel

7.5
25.4 / 2

7.8
25.7 / 2

96.15%

7

Scary Movie 4

7.2
77.6 / 3

7.8
78.2 / 3

92.31%

8

Stick It
(2,038 theaters)

5.7
5.7 / 1

10.8
10.8 / 1

52.78%

9

The Wild

5.4
29.1 / 3

4.8
28.5 / 3

87.50%

10

The Benchwarmers

3.5
51.9 / 3

4.4
52.8 / 3

79.55%


4/21-23

1

Silent Hill
(2,926 theaters)

20.6
20.6 / 1

20.2
20.2 / 1

98.02%

2

Scary Movie 4

15.6
66.4 / 2

16.8
6
7.5 / 2

92.86%

3

The Sentinel
(2,819 theaters)

15.2
15.2 / 1

14.4
14.4 / 1

94.44%

4

Ice Age: The Meltdown

12.5
167.9 / 4

13.3
168.3 / 4

93.98%

5

American Dreamz
(1,500 theaters)

7.5
7.5 / 1

3.7
3.7 / 1

0.00%

6

The Wild

6.0
20.0 / 2

8.3
22.2 / 2

72.29%

7

The Benchwarmers

5.6
45.6 / 2

7.3
47.1 / 2

76.71%

8

Take the Lead

4.5
29.8 / 3

4.2
29.5 / 3

92.86%

9

Inside Man

4.0
81.6 / 5

3.7
81.3 / 5

91.89%

-

Thank You for Smoking

3.0
16.0 / 6

2.8
15.8 / 6

92.86%


4/14-16

1

Scary Movie 4
(3,602 theaters)

42.8
42.8 / 1

40.2
40.2 / 1

93.53%

2

Ice Age: The Meltdown

18.3
145.5 / 3

20.0
147.2 / 3

91.50%

3

The Wild
(2,854 theaters)

17.8
17.8 / 1

9.7
9.7 / 1

16.49%

4

The Benchwarmers

10.1
35.7 / 2

9.9
35.9 / 2

97.98%

5

Take the Lead

6.7
22.4 / 2

6.8
22.6 / 2

98.53%

6

Inside Man

5.2
74.1 / 4

6.4
75.4 / 4

81.25%

7

Thank You for Smoking
(1,015 theaters)

4.7
11.7 / 5

4.5
11.5 / 5

95.56%

8

Lucky Number Slevin

3.8
13.4 / 2

4.8
14.3 / 2

79.17%

9

Failure to Launch

2.3
82.9 / 6

2.6
83.2 / 6

88.46%

10

V for Vendetta

1.8
65.6 / 5

2.2
66.0 / 5

81.82%


4/7-9

1

Ice Age: The Meltdown

39.4
121.4 / 2

33.8
115.8 / 2

83.43%

2

Take the Lead
(3,009 theaters)

16.9
16.9 / 1

12.1
12.1 / 1

60.33%

3

The Benchwarmers
(3,274 theaters)

13.6
13.6 / 1

19.7
19.7 / 1

69.04%

4

Inside Man

9.6
66.5 / 3

9.1
66.0 / 3

94.51%

5

Lucky Number Slevin
(1,806 theaters)

7.9
7.9 / 1

7.0
7.0 / 1

87.14%

6

ATL

5.0
18.5 / 2

3.7
17.2 / 2

64.86%

7

Failure to Launch

4.0
79.0 / 5

4.1
79.1 / 5

97.56%

8

Phat Girlz
(1,056 theaters)

4.0
4.0 / 1

3.1
3.1 / 1

70.97%

9

V for Vendetta

3.5
62.4 / 4

3.4
62.3 / 4

97.06%

10

She's the Man

2.8
30.4 / 4

2.2
29.9 / 4

72.73%

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Forecast Archive

2006

JANUARY-MARCH

2005

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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