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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (early Friday) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info like tracking reports. Only stats on this site that are readily available to all are used in his formulations.)
 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

OCTOBER-DECEMBER, 2006



12/22-25
4-day Christmas Weekend

1

Night at the Museum
(3,688 theaters)

26.5
26.5 / 1

42.2
42.2 / 1

62.80%

2

The Pursuit of Happyness

20.6
58.8 / 2

22.6
60.8 / 2

91.15%

3

Rocky Balboa
(3,017 theaters)

18.8
26.8 / 1

17.0
26.7 / 1

89.41%

4

Eragon

12.0
42.3 / 2

9.3
39.8 / 2

70.97%

5

We Are Marshall
(2,606 theaters)

10.2
10.2 / 1

8.6
8.6 / 1

81.40%

6

Charlotte's Web

10.0
28.6 / 2

9.6
28.4 / 2

95.83%

7

Happy Feet

8.8
162.6 / 6

6.6
160.5 / 6

66.67%

8

The Good Shepherd
(2,217 theaters)

8.3
8.3 / 1

14.1
14.1 / 1

58.87%

9

The Holiday

7.1
37.0 / 3

6.9
36.9 / 3

97.10%

-

Apocalypto

5.2
36.9 / 3

4.5
36.2 / 3

84.44%

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12/15-17

1

Eragon
(3,020 theaters)

22.6
22.6 / 1

23.2
23.2 / 1

97.41%

2

Charlotte's Web
(3,566 theaters)

17.8
17.8 / 1

11.5
11.5 / 1

45.22%

3

The Pursuit of Happyness
(2,852 theaters)

16.9
16.9 / 1

26.5
26.5 / 1

63.77%

4

Happy Feet

8.9
149.8 / 5

8.4
149.2 / 5

94.05%

5

The Holiday

8.7
25.8 / 2

8.0
25.1 / 2

91.25%

6

Apocalypto

8.1
28.3 / 2

8.0
28.2 / 2

98.75%

7

Blood Diamond

5.9
18.0 / 2

6.5
18.6 / 2

90.77%

8

Casino Royale

5.1
137.0 / 5

5.6
137.5 / 5

91.07%

9

The Nativity Story

4.2
22.6 / 3

4.7
23.0 / 3

89.36%

10

Unaccompanied Minors

2.9
9.5 / 2

3.5
10.1 / 2

82.86%


12/8-10

1

The Holiday
(2,610 theaters)

15.5
15.5 / 1

12.8
12.8 / 1

78.91%

2

Blood Diamond
(1,910 theaters)

11.9
11.9 / 1

8.6
8.6 / 1

61.63%

3

Happy Feet

11.4
136.4 / 4

12.9
137.9 / 4

88.37%

4

Apocalypto
(2,465 theaters)

10.8
10.8 / 1

15.0
15.0 / 1

72.00%

5

Casino Royale

9.2
129.3 / 4

8.9
129.0 / 4

96.63%

6

Deja Vu

6.6
53.6 / 3

6.0
53.0 / 3

90.00%

7

Unaccompanied Minors
(2,775 theaters)

6.1
6.1 / 1

5.8
5.8 / 1

94.83%

8

The Nativity Story

5.3
15.5 / 2

5.7
15.9 / 2

92.98%

9

Deck the Halls

4.2
30.4 / 3

4.0
30.1 / 3

95.00%

10

The Santa Clause 3

3.5
77.5 / 6

3.3
77.2 / 6

93.94%


12/1-3

1

Happy Feet

16.0
120.0 / 3

17.5
121.5 / 3

91.43%

2

Casino Royale

15.3
116.2 / 3

15.1
115.9 / 3

98.68%

3

The Nativity Story
(3,183 theaters)

11.9
11.9 / 1

7.8
7.8 / 1

47.44%

4

Deja Vu

9.6
42.7 / 2

10.9
44.0 / 2

88.07%

5

Deck the Halls

5.5
23.8 / 2

6.7
25.0 / 2

82.09%

6

Borat

5.4
116.9 / 5

4.7
116.2 / 5

85.11%

7

Turistas
(1,570 theaters)

4.9
4.9 / 1

3.6
3.6 / 1

63.89%

8

The Santa Clause 3

4.4
72.6 / 5

4.9
73.0 / 5

89.80%

9

Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj
(1,979 theaters)

2.8
2.8 / 1

2.3
2.3 / 1

78.26%

-

Flushed Away

2.0
59.8 / 5

2.2
60.0 / 5

90.91%


11/24-26

1

Happy Feet

35.7
98.5 / 2

37.0
99.3 / 2

96.49%

2

Casino Royale

27.7
91.5 / 2

30.8
94.1 / 2

89.94%

3

Deja Vu
(3,108 theaters)

21.8
31.0 / 1

20.6
28.6 / 1

94.17%

4

Deck the Halls
(3,205 theaters)

12.0
16.9 / 1

12.0
16.9 / 1

100.00%

5

Borat

10.3
108.2 / 4

10.3
109.1 / 4

100.00%

6

The Santa Clause 3

9.5
67.0 / 4

9.9
67.1 / 4

95.96%

7

Tenacious D in: The Pick of Destiny
(1,919 theaters)

8.8
12.8 / 1

3.2
5.2 / 1

0.00%

8

The Fountain
(1,472 theaters)

6.0
9.4 / 1

3.8
5.5 / 1

42.11%

9

Flushed Away

5.6
57.6 / 4

5.8
57.3 / 4

96.55%

10

Bobby
(1,667 theaters)

5.2
6.4 / 2

4.9
6.1 /
2

93.88%


11/17-19

1

Casino Royale
(3,434 theaters)

47.2
47.2 / 1

40.8
40.8 / 1

84.31%

2

Happy Feet
(3,804 theaters)

42.8
42.8 / 1

41.5
41.5 / 1

96.87%

3

Borat

16.0
92.0 / 3

14.6
90.8 / 3

90.41%

4

The Santa Clause 3

9.8
53.2 / 3

8.3
51.7 / 3

81.93%

5

Flushed Away

8.4
50.4 / 3

6.6
48.6 / 3

72.73%

6

Stranger Than Fiction

6.3
22.5 / 2

6.6
22.9 / 2

95.45%

7

Let's Go to Prison
(1,495 theaters)

3.6
3.6 / 1

2.2
2.2 / 1

36.36%

8

Babel

3.6
12.7 / 4

2.9
12.0 / 4

75.86%

9

The Departed

3.3
114.5 / 7

26
113.8 / 7

73.08%

10

Saw III

3.0
75.0 / 4

2.9
75.0 / 4

96.55%


11/10-12

1

Borat
(2,566 theaters)

26.2
64.6 / 2

28.3
67.1 / 2

92.58%

2

The Santa Clause 3

14.5
38.4 / 2

16.9
41.1 / 2

85.80%

3

Flushed Away

13.5
37.5 / 2

16.6
39.8 / 2

81.33%

4

Stranger Than Fiction
(2,264 theaters)

13.1
13.1 / 1

13.4
13.4 / 1

97.76%

5

A Good Year
(2,066 theaters)

9.0
9.0 / 1

3.7
3.7 / 1

0.00%

6

Babel
(1,251 theaters)

8.6
10.4 / 3

5.6
5.6 / 3

46.43%

7

Saw III

7.2
70.4 / 3

7.0
70.3 / 3

97.14%

8

The Return
(1,986 theaters)

6.2
6.2 / 1

4.5
4.5 / 1

62.22%

9

The Departed

5.7
110.3 / 6

5.2
109.7 / 6

90.38%

-

Harsh Times
(956 theaters)

3.3
3.3 / 1

2.0
2.0 / 1

35.00%


11/3-5

1

The Santa Clause 3
(3,458 theaters)

23.8
23.8 / 1

19.5
19.5 / 1

77.95%

2

Saw III

15.6
60.4 / 2

14.8
59.4 / 2

94.59%

3

Flushed Away
(3,707 theaters)

15.3
15.3 / 1

18.8
18.8 / 1

81.38%

4

Borat
(837 theaters)

10.5
10.5 / 1

26.5
26.5 / 1

39.62%

5

The Departed

7.4
101.7 / 5

7.7
102.0 / 5

96.10%

6

The Prestige

6.4
38.0 / 3

7.5
39.1 / 3

85.33%

7

Flags of Our Fathers

4.1
26.2 / 3

4.4
26.6 / 3

93.18%

8

Open Season

3.3
81.5 / 6

3.0
81.3 / 6

90.00%

9

Man of the Year

3.1
33.3 / 4

3.7
33.8 / 4

83.78%

10

Flicka

3.0
17.9 / 3

2.7
17.6 / 3

88.89%


10/27-29

1

Saw III
(3,167 theaters)

33.6
33.6 / 1

33.6
33.6 / 1

100.00%

2

The Departed

9.5
90.8 / 4

9.8
91.1 / 4

96.94%

3

The Prestige

8.8
28.0 / 2

9.6
28.8 / 2

91.67%

4

Flags of Our Fathers

7.4
21.0 / 2

6.3
19.9 / 2

82.54%

5

Open Season

5.4
76.6 / 5

5.9
77.1 / 5

91.53%

6

Flicka

4.6
13.7 / 2

4.7
13.9 / 2

97.87%

7

Catch a Fire
(1,305 theaters)

4.1
4.1 / 1

2.0
2.0 / 1

0.00%

-

The Grudge 2

3.8
36.5 / 3

3.3
36.0 / 3

84.85%

-

Marie Antoinette

3.1
10.0 / 2

2.8
9.8 / 2

89.29%

-

Running with Scissors
(586 theaters)

2.9
3.2 / 2

2.5
2.9 / 2

84.00%


10/20-22

1

The Prestige
(2,281 theaters)

19.2
19.2 / 1

14.8
14.8 / 1

70.27%

2

Flags of Our Fathers
(1,876 theaters)

14.6
14.6 / 1

10.2
10.2 / 1

56.86%

3

The Departed

12.2
75.6 / 3

13.5
76.9 / 3

90.37%

4

The Grudge 2

7.4
31.1 / 2

7.7
31.3 / 2

96.10%

5

Flicka
(2,877 theaters)

7.2
7.2 / 1

7.7
7.7 / 1

93.51%

6

Open Season

6.8
68.3 / 4

8.2
69.8 / 4

82.93%

7

Man of the Year

6.1
21.6 / 2

6.9
22.4 / 2

88.41%

8

Marie Antoinette
(859 theaters)

4.0
4.0 / 1

5.4
5.4 / 1

74.07%

9

The Marine

3.7
12.5 / 2

3.8
12.6 / 2

97.37%

10

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning

3.4
35.5 / 3

3.8
35.9 / 3

89.47%


10/13-15

1

The Grudge 2
(3,211 theaters)

24.1
24.1 / 1

20.8
20.8 / 1

84.13%

2

The Departed

16.3
54.3 / 2

19.0
57.0 / 2

85.79%

3

Open Season

10.6
58.7 / 3

11.1
59.3 / 3

95.50%

4

Man of the Year
(2,516 theaters)

10.3
10.3 / 1

12.3
12.3 / 1

83.74%

5

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning

7.0
29.7 / 2

7.5
30.2 / 2

93.33%

6

The Marine
(2,545 theaters)

6.4
6.4 / 1

7.1
7.1 / 1

90.14%

7

The Guardian

5.7
40.9 / 3

5.9
41.1 / 3

96.61%

8

Employee of the Month

5.3
19.5 / 2

5.3
19.6 / 2

100.00%

9

Jackass: Number Two

3.2
68.3 / 4

3.3
68.4 / 4

96.97%

10

One Night with the King
(908 theaters)

2.3
2.3 / 1

4.1
4.1 / 1

56.10%


10/6-8

1

The Departed
(3,017 theaters)

27.3
27.3 / 1

26.9
26.9 / 1

98.51%

2

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning
(2,820 theaters)

16.3
16.3 / 1

18.5
18.5 / 1

88.11%

3

Open Season

15.3
43.4 / 2

15.6
43.8 / 2

98.08%

4

The Guardian

11.0
33.8 / 2

9.6
32.3 / 2

85.42%

5

Employee of the Month
(2,579 theaters)

9.7
9.7 / 1

11.4
11.4 / 1

85.09%

6

Jackass: Number Two

7.7
64.0 / 3

6.5
62.8 / 3

81.54%

7

School for Scoundrels

4.6
15.1 / 2

3.4
14.0 / 2

64.71%

8

Jet Li's Fearless

2.7
22.2 / 3

2.3
21.8 / 3

82.61%

9

Gridiron Gang

2.6
36.9 / 4

2.2
36.6 / 4

81.82%

10

The Illusionist

2.1
34.4 / 8

1.9
34.1 / 8

89.47%

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Forecast Archive

2006

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2005

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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