Forecast

The legions of fanboys have been drooling in anticipation of the X-Men movie for quite some time. In the days before its release, they have reached a fever pitch, determined to love it no matter what as they did with The Phantom Menace last year. However, its commercial potential has always been an X. Early buzz was not good. The casting was questionable. The characters did not have the marquee value to launch a blockbuster. Worst of all, the first trailer was just run-of-the-mill MTV-style fare more reminiscent of Mystery Men than cool like Batman.

A funny thing happened on the way to its traditionally uneventful mid-July release date though. The marketing shifted gears, starting with an intriguing mock-political ad campaign for the Sen. Kelly character and his "Mutant Watch." Subsequent commercials made it into more of an event with better shots, more dialogue snippets and less techno music. What's more, the buzz shifted to very positive once people began to see the final product. It seems appeal has spread beyond the fanboys. Throw in their repeat business, and a blockbuster first frame seems secure.

Still, a few things may hold it back. Despite being the best selling comic and more than thirty years old, the X-Men just haven't seeped into the pop culture in the way that, say, Batman or Superman have. A gross like Blade's $70.1 million tends to be the exception rather than the rule among the less well known superheroes. Furthermore, despite the marked improvement in the ad campaign, there is still nary a "money shot," an indelible image, stunt or effect that is used to launch this kind of picture into the stratosphere.

The running time is a reported 100 minutes, cut down from an original two and quarter hours. Whether this makes the picture "tight" as the kids might say or just mercifully short remains to be seen. Either way, it's nice to see a picture come in at less than two hours for once. Most pictures these days are far longer than they need to be.

What could make the picture quite lucrative for 20th Century Fox is a low-by-tent-pole-standards budget of $75 million. This was reportedly achieved by not framing the picture around the special effects, but around the characters' development and interaction with the effects in support.

Should X-Men open to higher than $40 million after The Perfect Storm and Scary Movie did, it would be the first time in history that three pictures had consecutive opening weekends in this range. That appears unlikely, though a weekend in the mid-thirty million range from its 3,024 theater launch and commanding first place finish could be in store.

Scary Movie surprised everyone last weekend and blew away several records with its massive $42.3 million opening. With a production budget of just $19 million, it will likely be one of the few pictures to profit from its domestic theatrical run alone. Given the inherently front-loaded nature of the material and that teens are free to see it during the week, a sizable decline seems to be in store. Scream 2 and 3 fell 58% and 53% respectively. A drop of at least 45% would put Scary Movie in the low twenty million range and second place this weekend.

The Perfect Storm's waves were $27.1 million high last weekend, down a modest 34% and pushing it past the century mark. If it subsides by about 35% or more, it would come in at the mid-to-high teens and third place.

The Patriot retreated by 31% last weekend to $15.4 million, a decent hold after a disappointing opening. If it continues down this line, it could land in fourth place with $10-11 million this weekend.

The Kid opened to a respectable albeit unspectacular $12.7 million last weekend. Since the Bruce Willis-and-moppet comedy targets both families and adults who don't necessarily rush out on the first weekend and has positive word-of-mouth, it could hold up solidly, dropping around 30% to $9 million and fifth place.

Over the same frame last year, the long awaited Eyes Wide Shut opened to $21.7 million. Audiences expected an erotic thriller, but found it to be artsy-fartsy instead so it fumbled its way to $55.7 million total. American Pie's warm reception continued as it dropped just 28% in its second week to $13.6 million on its way to $102.1 million. Creature feature spoof Lake Placid opened in third with $11 million, en route to $31.8 million total. The Wood, as in Englewood not the other thing, opened to a potent $8.5 million from 1,191 venues and ended with $25.1 million total. Muppets From Space crash landed in tenth place with just $4.8 million, sputtering out at $16.6 million total.