Forecast (cont.): 'Saw' Re-Release, 'Before I Go to Sleep'
<< Continued from "Weekend Forecast"
"If it's Halloween, it must be Saw."
Lionsgate is banking that moviegoers will remember that old adage this weekend, when the 2004 horror classic is re-released in to over 2,000 theaters.
The original Saw opened to a surprising $18.3 million on this weekend 10 years ago, and spawned a franchise that ruled the next four Halloweens. The first sequel (Saw II) was the highest-grossing installment with $87 million; grosses progressively declined to Saw V, which earned $56.7 million.
All good things must eventually end, though, and Saw VI got stomped by word-of-mouth sensation Paranormal Activity in October 2009. The movie dropped around 50 percent from the previous installment, which led to a franchise-low $27.7 million gross. The following year, Saw 3D recovered to $45.7 million, though that was thanks to the addition of 3D pricing (during 3D's peak) and a "final chapter" bump.
Re-releases have been a hit-or-miss endeavor lately. 3D re-releases for The Lion King, Jurassic Park, Finding Nemo, Star Wars: Episode I—The Phantom Menace and Titanic all earned at least $40 million, which is impressive for movies that are widely available for home viewing.
The Saw re-release doesn't have the 3D value-add, though, and will likely wind up closer to recent 2D-only re-releases. Raiders of the Lost Ark (IMAX) and Ghostbusters (30th Anniversary re-release) both wrapped up between $3 and $3.5 million.
Saw 10th Anniversary will benefit from a wider release (2,063 theaters) and a well-timed Halloween debut. Still, horror fans have moved on to new franchises like The Conjuring and Insidious in recent years; even Saw's replacement, Paranormal Activity, has become passe. Are horror fans really eager to revisit the Saw franchise?
With a light, targeted marketing effort, a weekend in the $3-to-$5 million range seems likely here.
Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go To Sleep opens at 1,902 theaters this weekend. The movie is the third release from Clarius Entertainment, the upstart distributor behind And So It Goes ($15.2 million) and Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return ($8.5 million).
And So It Goes opened to $4.6 million in slightly fewer theaters. Still, the grim Before I Go to Sleep doesn't seem as immediately appealing as that geriatric comedy. An opening in the $2-to-$4 million range is a safe bet.
Daniel Radcliffe's Horns opens in limited release this weekend. Radcliffe's last two movies, What If (2014) and Kill Your Darlings, earned $3.5 million and $1.03 million, respectively; with its day-and-date VOD release, Horns will likely wind up on the lower end of that range (if it gets there at all).
Forecast (October 31—November 2)
1. Nightcrawler - $15 million
2. John Wick - $8.2 million (-43%)
3. Fury - $8 million (-40%)
4. Ouija - $7.7 million (-61%)
5. Gone Girl - $7 million (-37%)
-. Saw 10th Anniversary - $5.2 million
-. Before I Go to Sleep - $3.5 million
Bar for Success
Nightcrawler is a modest release from a mid-major studio; anything above $10 million is fine. Saw 10th Anniversary is in good shape if it can hit $5 million this weekend, while Before I Go to Sleep also ought to be reaching $5 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Report: Decent Debuts from 'Ouija,' 'Wick' This Weekend
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Ouija' Set to Spook 'John Wick' This Weekend
"If it's Halloween, it must be Saw."
Lionsgate is banking that moviegoers will remember that old adage this weekend, when the 2004 horror classic is re-released in to over 2,000 theaters.
The original Saw opened to a surprising $18.3 million on this weekend 10 years ago, and spawned a franchise that ruled the next four Halloweens. The first sequel (Saw II) was the highest-grossing installment with $87 million; grosses progressively declined to Saw V, which earned $56.7 million.
All good things must eventually end, though, and Saw VI got stomped by word-of-mouth sensation Paranormal Activity in October 2009. The movie dropped around 50 percent from the previous installment, which led to a franchise-low $27.7 million gross. The following year, Saw 3D recovered to $45.7 million, though that was thanks to the addition of 3D pricing (during 3D's peak) and a "final chapter" bump.
Re-releases have been a hit-or-miss endeavor lately. 3D re-releases for The Lion King, Jurassic Park, Finding Nemo, Star Wars: Episode I—The Phantom Menace and Titanic all earned at least $40 million, which is impressive for movies that are widely available for home viewing.
The Saw re-release doesn't have the 3D value-add, though, and will likely wind up closer to recent 2D-only re-releases. Raiders of the Lost Ark (IMAX) and Ghostbusters (30th Anniversary re-release) both wrapped up between $3 and $3.5 million.
Saw 10th Anniversary will benefit from a wider release (2,063 theaters) and a well-timed Halloween debut. Still, horror fans have moved on to new franchises like The Conjuring and Insidious in recent years; even Saw's replacement, Paranormal Activity, has become passe. Are horror fans really eager to revisit the Saw franchise?
With a light, targeted marketing effort, a weekend in the $3-to-$5 million range seems likely here.
Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go To Sleep opens at 1,902 theaters this weekend. The movie is the third release from Clarius Entertainment, the upstart distributor behind And So It Goes ($15.2 million) and Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return ($8.5 million).
And So It Goes opened to $4.6 million in slightly fewer theaters. Still, the grim Before I Go to Sleep doesn't seem as immediately appealing as that geriatric comedy. An opening in the $2-to-$4 million range is a safe bet.
Daniel Radcliffe's Horns opens in limited release this weekend. Radcliffe's last two movies, What If (2014) and Kill Your Darlings, earned $3.5 million and $1.03 million, respectively; with its day-and-date VOD release, Horns will likely wind up on the lower end of that range (if it gets there at all).
Forecast (October 31—November 2)
1. Nightcrawler - $15 million
2. John Wick - $8.2 million (-43%)
3. Fury - $8 million (-40%)
4. Ouija - $7.7 million (-61%)
5. Gone Girl - $7 million (-37%)
-. Saw 10th Anniversary - $5.2 million
-. Before I Go to Sleep - $3.5 million
Bar for Success
Nightcrawler is a modest release from a mid-major studio; anything above $10 million is fine. Saw 10th Anniversary is in good shape if it can hit $5 million this weekend, while Before I Go to Sleep also ought to be reaching $5 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Report: Decent Debuts from 'Ouija,' 'Wick' This Weekend
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Ouija' Set to Spook 'John Wick' This Weekend
